D.C. spring real estate market forecast: "Wait and see"
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo: Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post via Getty Images
"Wait and see" is the name of the game when it comes to Washington's spring real estate market this year, thanks to uncertain economic outlooks and federal worker upheaval, experts tell Axios.
The big picture: The real estate market has been slow nationwide because of inflation and recession anxiety, says Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant.
- But "here in the Washington area, of course, some of that uncertainty is on steroids," due to DOGE's cuts to the federal workforce and the Trump administration's return-to-office orders, she says.
What they're saying: While it's too early to say with certainty that the DOGE firings are affecting the local market, the D.C. area has seen more new listings in the last month than other areas of the mid-Atlantic, says Sturtevant.
- Yes, but: Listings are especially up in outer areas of the DMV that became popular during the pandemic, like Maryland's Frederick or Charles counties, suggesting that return-to-office orders might be affecting the market, Sturtevant says.
Reality check: Don't expect prices to plummet because of these new listings. If anything, they'll just soften a bit, says Sturtevant.
- Pending sales activity, aka buyers making offers on homes, is higher in Washington than in other mid-Atlantic markets, suggesting that there's pent-up demand for these new listings. And the median listing price is still rising compared to where it was a year ago.
- Yes, but: The DMV is seeing a jump in the number of sellers cutting their asking prices compared to these other markets, Sturtevant says — an early indicator that we could see prices decline heading into summer, especially in those farther-out areas.
By the numbers: New DMV listings during the week ending March 23 were up 20% compared to the same period last year, per Bright MLS data. That number was only up 10% for all of Bright MLS' coverage area.
- Meanwhile, the median DMV listing price was $629,894 — up 7%.
- But 9% of active Washington listings saw a price drop during that week — an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
Bright side: Things are looking up for wannabe first-time buyers this season, thanks to mortgage rates lowering a bit, more listings and more wiggle room to negotiate on price and concessions, says Sturtevant.
- "We're in a moment where there's an opportunity for good deals," D.C. real estate agent Nate Guggenheim tells Axios.
Caveat: It's still multiple-offers competitive for buyers searching for the unicorn of a single-family home in D.C. or the close-in suburbs priced between $800,000 to $1.5 million, says Guggenheim.
- "The demand certainly outstrips the supply."
What we're watching: If DOGE terminations continue, and if President Trump makes good on his promise of moving agencies out of the region, it would "be a pretty significant transition period in the real estate market here in the Washington area," Sturtevant says.
The bottom line: Expect something between a stable market and one that is softer than usual this spring, with prices staying stagnant or slightly declining in some areas.