Map: How Minnesota GOP's suburban strategy fared in a blue wave
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Lisa Demuth struggled to rack up votes in the metro area at the same rate as the last Republican gubernatorial candidate, Scott Jensen, according to an Axios analysis.
The big picture: Last August, Minnesota Republican primary voters rejected Mike Lindell, who had President Trump's and the state party's endorsement, in favor of Demuth.
- Operatives believed Demuth had more potential to appeal to voters in battleground Twin Cities suburbs — as did the non-endorsed Republicans who advanced from the U.S. Senate and state auditor primaries.
Yes, but: The strategy ran straight into a historic Democratic wave, which wiped them all out in the general election.
What they're saying: Bucking the party's endorsement process was still the right strategy, says former Tim Pawlenty aide Brian McClung.
- "Election night was the beginning of the end of the Trump era," he tells Axios, urging the GOP to focus on deepening its appeal to swing voters in 2028 and beyond.
Zoom in: Ironically, it was in rural north-central Minnesota where Demuth performed better than Jensen in 2022.
- She also modestly improved in exurban counties like Chisago and Goodhue.
Reality check: GOP strategist Preya Samsundar cautions against over-interpreting the downballot results in an "outlier" election defined not by local issues but widespread and understandable anger at Trump.
- Samsundar believes primary voters selected strong candidates who would have prevailed in a different year — and reverting to candidates aimed only at firing up Trump's 2024 base would be a mistake.
In an election like Tuesday's, "the Mike Lindells of the world didn't even have a chance," Samsundar tells Axios.