How third-party candidates could shape Minnesota's tight races
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Most of Minnesota's top statewide races this November have a third-party candidate in the mix.
Why it matters: Even a relatively small share of the vote going to someone outside the two major parties can shape the outcome of a close race.
State of play: Third-party candidates are in the running in four races currently polling at single-digit margins.
Governor: A Green Party ticket led by Steven Young joins Republican Lisa Demuth and Democrat Amy Klobuchar on the ballot.
U.S. Senate: Independent Marisa Simonetti and Libertarian Rebecca Whiting are in the heated race along with Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya.
Secretary of State: The contest between Democrat Steve Simon and Republican Tad Jude also features Green Party candidate Seth Kuhl-Stennes and Libertarian George "Chip" Tangen.
Auditor: Jay Reeves, affiliated with the new Forward Independence Party, is running alongside Democrat Zack Filipovich and Republican Scott Jensen.
Between the lines: Predicting which side these candidates will ultimately help or hurt can be complicated, experts say, though their top issues and backgrounds can give some clues.
- In recent elections strategists saw candidates running under the banner of Minnesota's now-defunct legal marijuana parties as drawing more votes from Democrats.
The intrigue: Demuth, who trailed Klobuchar by about 7 percentage points in one recent poll, has called for the Green Party nominee to be part of debates.
- That suggests that her camp believes he could appeal to Democrats who fall to the left of the more moderate U.S. senator.
Meanwhile, Tangen, the Libertarian candidate for secretary of state, used to be active in state GOP politics and worked for former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, per Eden Prairie Local News.
Reality check: Money, name recognition and major political party affiliation are traditionally some of the biggest factors driving voters' decisions in contested races.
- Many of this year's third-party candidates lack much of the first two.
Plus: While one recent KSTP survey showed a neck-and-neck U.S. Senate contest, national race ratings and outside spending have yet to signal that it's a true toss-up.
- Polls show slightly wider margins in the other statewide contests, potentially giving the front-runners more cushion against votes peeled off by alternatives.
Yes, but: Voters disillusioned with one or both sides may opt for a lesser-known alternative as a protest vote, David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University, tells Axios.
- "There's a certain percentage of the population that just doesn't like the choices before them," he said, noting that polling shows Americans have an unfavorable view of both major parties.
Worth noting: Minnesota voters have a notable track record when it comes to backing candidates outside the two parties. (See: Reform Party Gov. Jesse Ventura.)
- In 2022, a pair of pro-marijuana candidates won the backing of over 130,000 Minnesotans in a state auditor's race that was decided by just 8,435 votes.
The bottom line: Margins probably need to be in the low single-digits for an independent candidate's vote share to swing the outcome of a race.