Hot tip: State Fair attendance dips in warmer weather
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Here's one strategy for beating the crowds at the Minnesota State Fair: Hope for temps in the 90s, then go brave the heat.
By the numbers: Daily attendance was 13% lower when the high was 90ºF or greater, on average, than on days with highs of 89ºF or less. That's according to an Axios analysis of attendance and climate records since 1994.
Why it matters: Many of the traditional hacks for avoiding long lines — like going on opening day or on a weekday — have become less reliable in recent years.
The big picture: State Fair crowds almost always peak sometime during Labor Day weekend.
- Opening day and the midweek days have always been slower — and statistics suggest these are still the days most likely to see lighter attendance.
Yes, but: Opening day has become a lot more popular since the 2021 COVID-restricted fair, with last year's Day 1 crowd (137,148) coming just shy of a daily record set just one year earlier.
Plus: Weekdays have also increasingly looked like just any other day at the fair.
- Last year's first Monday crowd (145,022) set a daily record, and Tuesday and Wednesday crowds also set records in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Zoom in: Here's where looking for a day over 90ºF starts to feel like as good a crowd-beating strategy as any.
Look at Labor Day weekend, which is normally packed. The fair has seen seven days exceeding 90ºF during that period since 1994.
- Those hotter days saw an average of 20,745 fewer visitors than cooler Labor Day weekend days.
During midweek days when temps soared past 90ºF, the average attendance dwindled to 103,000 — about as small as one can hope for.
- That's a crowd 13% smaller than on cooler midweek days.
The intrigue: Heat deters crowds, but rain doesn't always, our analysis suggests.
- There's no discernible correlation between precipitation and crowd size.
Reality check: There's rarely such a thing as a "slow day" at the fair — and hot days have still seen big crowds.
- The fair's all-time daily attendance record (270,426) was set on an 88ºF day.
- Attendance has twice topped 200,000 on 90ºF+ days.
What's next: Forecasts for the next week call for highs in the 80s — and the long-term outlook shows only a slight chance of above-average temps.