Boomer retreat, smaller Gen X thins Minnesota workforce
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Minnesota has lost more than 71,000 people ages 45-64 since 2020 — a 5% decline in a group central to the state's workforce and tax base.
Why it matters: Like much of the U.S., Minnesota is losing experienced workers and caregivers just as its aging population needs more of both.
- It also means a drain of institutional knowledge, leadership experience and mentorship capacity for younger colleagues.
The big picture: "We're going to be an older state into the foreseeable future," state demographer Susan Brower told a webinar audience in February, "and need to have these systems, these organizations in place to help all of us as we age."
Between the lines: The 45-64 group isn't vanishing so much as it's aging up as younger baby boomers retire faster than Gen Xers can replace them.
- Gen X is a smaller cohort. A "baby bust" in the 1960s and '70s was driven in part by wider availability of contraception.
By the numbers: Minnesota's 45-64 population decreased from about 1.43 million in April 2020 to 1.35 million in July 2025, according to an Axios analysis of newly released U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
- That's larger than the national decrease of 3.2% but smaller than the Midwest's 6.2% drop.
Zoom in: The 45-64 population is dropping both in the Twin Cities (–4.3%) and outside the metro (–5.3%), but the declines are most pronounced in rural western Minnesota: Traverse County's 18% drop was the steepest in the state.
- The trend is exacerbating a gap between rural areas — where the "prime working age" population (ages 16-64) is generally shrinking — and metro counties, where it's generally growing, according to state estimates.
- The only counties where the 45-64 population grew — Wright, Scott and Sherburne — include suburbs or exurbs of the Twin Cities.
What we're watching: This change will leave a much younger workforce at the helm of Minnesota's economy.
- By 2035, the state's 55-64 labor force will shrink by some 48,000 workers — a 9.4% drop — according to projections from Minnesota's Department of Employment and Economic Development.
Go deeper: America's missing middle: The shrinking 45-64 population