Minnesota senator's guilty verdict could put Democrats' narrow majority in play
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Political control of the Minnesota Senate could be up for grabs following Democratic state Sen. Nicole Mitchell's conviction on felony burglary charges.
The latest: The first-term senator from Woodbury is facing growing pressure to resign in the wake of Friday's guilty verdict, with top DFL leaders saying that they expect her to follow through on private promises to step aside if convicted.
- Mitchell hasn't commented on her plans, though her attorney told Axios she will appeal in the criminal case.
Why it matters: The fallout and political fight over the case could again upend the balance of power at the narrowly divided Capitol, putting Democrats' 34-33 majority in the Senate in play.
- That's because if Mitchell steps down — or is eventually removed from office via a vote of her Senate peers — it will trigger a high-stakes special election that will determine control of the chamber.
State of play: Democrats have carried the east metro area covered by the suburban Senate District 47 by comfortable margins in recent elections. Mitchell secured a four-year term with about 58% of the vote in 2022.
- She wasn't up for reelection in 2024, but the two Democrats who won the nested House seats — Reps. Ethan Cha and Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger— won by 9 and 21 percentage points, respectively.
Yes, but: The chance to flip the seat in a low-turnout, off-year special election would fuel a hotly contested race that attracts gobs of spending from both sides.
Case in point: Outside groups poured seven figures into the majority-making west metro Senate district that was on the November 2024 ballot due to another DFL senator's decision to step down amid a run for Congress.
The intrigue: A successful run by either Cha or Hemmingsen-Jaeger would trigger yet another special election that would put control of the House in play.
- That chamber is expected to return to a tie when slain Speaker Emeritus Melissa Hortman's seat is filled in September.
- Neither lawmaker replied to a request for comment sent to their campaign email accounts over the weekend.
What we're hearing: Republican Dwight Dorau, who ran against Mitchell in 2022 and Cha in 2024, is also seen as a potential candidate for a special election.
- He did not respond to a request for comment sent through his campaign Facebook page Sunday.
Between the lines: A vacancy this summer or fall would allow Mitchell's seat to be filled before the Legislature reconvenes in February.
- Waiting until the next year could leave the chamber deadlocked 33-33 for weeks of the already short legislative session.
Zoom out: The renewed Mitchell drama is the latest in a series of twists for the narrowly divided Legislature, which has been rocked over the last year by lawmaker deaths, residency drama and the resignation of a GOP member who was arrested for underage solicitation.
What we're watching: What Democrats do next if Mitchell doesn't step aside.
- At least one Senate DFL member said after the verdict that the "must act to remove her so we can focus on the business the people of Minnesota" if she remains in office.
- An expulsion vote would require support of two-thirds of the Senate to pass.