Tie or GOP majority? Recount begins in closest Minnesota House race
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A recount that could decide political control of the Minnesota House begins Thursday in Scott County.
Why it matters: The outcome in House District 54A will decide whether the House remains locked in a rare 67-67 tie.
State of play: DFL Rep. Brad Tabke of Shakopee leads GOP challenger Aaron Paul by 14 votes — a margin close enough to trigger a publicly funded recount.
- A reversal that delivers a win to Paul would give Republicans a narrow majority in the chamber.
Reality check: While 14 votes aren't very many, recounts of close Minnesota races rarely result in a change to the final outcome.
- The final margin has shifted between zero and seven votes in the last 10 legislative recounts, per the Legislative Reference Library.
- In every case, the original winner prevailed.
Friction point: Scott County election officials have been unable to account for 21 potential votes after discovering a discrepancy between the number of people who checked in to absentee vote and the number of ballots received back.
- An investigation into that situation is ongoing, elections manager Julie Hanson said in a news release yesterday, noting that the canvassing board is only authorized to certify and audit ballots in its possession.
What we're watching: Whether there's a legal challenge over those potentially missing ballots after the post-recount results are certified next Monday.
How a recount works: Local election officials separate and tally the ballots by hand, and representatives from both sides have an opportunity to challenge those they view as unclear or ineligible.
- The recount, which starts at 8:30 am at the Scott County Government Center, is open to the public.
The bottom line: Regardless of the outcome, Minnesota will return to some form of divided government after two years of full DFL control, either through a slim Republican House majority or a tied chamber.
- Given how few votes typically change in a recount, both sides are proceeding with plans for a tied House.