Voters in these Minnesota districts will decide which party controls the state capitol
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Voters in communities ranging from Chisholm to Chanhassen will effectively determine if the DFL holds its trifecta or Minnesota returns to divided government next year.
The big picture: While all 134 state House seats are up for a vote this year, the majority will be decided in a dozen or so competitive districts scattered across the state.
- Some of these legislative races have come down to hundreds of votes or less in recent elections.
Plus: A Senate special election in the west metro puts Democrats' one-seat majority in that chamber in play.
State of play: In the state House, Republicans need a net gain of four seats to take control. They say they've got a clear path to get there by flipping seats in Greater Minnesota and the suburbs.
- But Democrats, who have a big cash advantage, are going on offense in a handful of districts the GOP won by narrow margins in 2022, too.
- They feel good about the map — and their candidates.
What we're watching: The map of battlegrounds includes:
Open swing seats: Moderate Democrats in Winona and the Iron Range retired this year, creating open races that are seen as two of the GOP's best pick-up opportunities
- House District 7B, held by outgoing Rep. Dave Lislegard (DFL-Aurora), is the only seat the DFL is defending that went for former President Trump in 2020.
- In House District 26A, Republicans are outspending Democrats to try to flip the seat that was held by longtime Rep. Gene Pelowski (DFL-Winona).
Dems on defense: Democrats are spending big to defend DFL Rep. Jeff Brand of St. Peter in the Mankato-area House District 18A — it was the second-most expensive state legislative race as of last week.
- Brand, first elected in 2018, lost the last time Trump was on the ballot, before winning the seat back in the 2022 "blue wave."
- Suburban seats held by incumbent Democrats Lucy Rehm of Chanhassen, Zack Stephenson of Coon Rapids and Brad Tabke of Shakopee are also attracting big spending from both sides, per MinnPost.
GOP on defense: Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar (R-Fredenberg Township) flipped House District 3B outside Duluth by just 33 votes in 2022. DFL-aligned groups have spent more than $775,000 to win it back, making the race the most expensive in the state.
- Democrats also see pick-up opportunities in several open seats in the east metro, DFL Party chair Ken Martin told reporters last week.
Must-win North Metro: A trio of seats held by Democrats in Anoka County — Stephenson's 35A, Rep. Matt Norris' 32B and the open 35B in Coon Rapids — are seen as key opportunities for the GOP.
- "Republicans win one, they've got a chance to take up the majority. If they win two, they probably are headed that way," GOP pundit Brian McClung said at a recent Minneapolis Regional Chamber panel.
- The open seat, which outgoing DFL Rep. Jerry Newton won by about 200 votes in 2022, is one of the GOP's biggest spending targets this year.
Meanwhile, the Senate special wild card: The fundamentals of Senate District 45 in the west metro favor Democrats, but the GOP is spending big on the race between former DFL Sen. Ann Johnson Stewart and Republican Kathleen Fowke.
The bottom line: While Minnesotans have a reputation for split-ticket voting, the margin at the top of the ticket could have an impact in these races.
- A closer margin between Trump and Vice President Harris — think 4 percentage points or less — would likely boost the GOP's chances.
Go deeper with more races to watch, maps and data points via MinnPost and the Star Tribune.