Minnesota's plummeting birth rate stabilized since the pandemic
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The steep decline in Minnesota's birth rate has largely plateaued since the start of the pandemic, but it's too soon to bank on a potential baby boom.
Why it matters: Fewer new lives hinders efforts to address the state's workforce shortage long term. Some experts also worry that there eventually won't be enough young people to care for the aging population.
By the numbers: The state's birth rate fell nearly 21% between 2007 and 2022, dropping from 14.16 births per 1,000 people to 11.2, Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report.
- Nationwide, the rate also declined during that same time span, dropping from 14.3 births per 1,000 people to 11.1, or close to 23%.
Between the lines: That figure is a closely watched for a number of reasons.
- It tends to fall as income rises, meaning lower birth rates can be a reflection of greater prosperity at both the national and individual levels.
Yes but: The opposite can also be true, as people who feel they can't afford children choose not to have them.
Plus: Lower birth rates can also be an indication of better access to contraception, family planning and abortion.
- The rate also tends to be lower in places with higher rates of women in the workforce — though that relationship is becoming increasingly complicated as more states embrace paid family leave and other programs for working families.
The intrigue: While the national birth rate dropped from 11.4 in 2019 to 11.0 in 2020, it remained flat in 2021 — and even ticked up slightly in 2022, to 11.1.
- Minnesota's stats largely mirrored that trend, with little change since 2020.
What we're hearing: Minnesota state demographer Susan Brower said the data from the last few years is likely the result of a pandemic-related "blip," where people who held off on trying to have children soon after COVID-19 hit did so the following two years instead.
- "My expectation going forward is that this little plateau is just temporary and then we'll see the decline resume within the coming years," Brower said.
What we're watching: Births are only one side of the population coin. Deaths and people moving to or leaving the state also play key roles.
- Brower said the declining birth rate will make growing the population through migration or immigration even more important for the future workforce.
The bottom line: It'll take a few more years before COVID's impact on new births is fully understood. But it seems likely the overall rate will resume its downward trend as post-pandemic normality continues settling in.
Editor's note: This story has been updated to include comments from demographer Susan Brower.