Minnesota Republicans' money problem
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
As they look to rebuild following another thumping at the polls, Minnesota Republicans are confronting a chicken-or-the-egg conundrum:
- They need more resources to compete and win across the state. But one of the best ways to get more resources is ... to run competitive campaigns and win.
State of play: The GOP lost all four statewide offices, a toss-up congressional seat and control of the Legislature in a midterm that was expected to favor them.
- The results delivered Democrats a trifecta at the State Capitol.
What they're saying: Republican officials and strategists interviewed by Axios attributed the losses to a number of factors, including messaging on abortion, missteps by the top-of-the-ticket, sub-par performance in the metro and a smaller-than-expected "red wave" nationwide.
- But money was a major issue: "When you're outspent five [or] six to one, it's very, very difficult [to win]," Republican Party chair David Hann tells Axios.
Zoom in: Democratic groups and candidates, including the DFL Party, had spent more than $127 million on state races in Minnesota as of late October, per one tally. Republicans reported closer to $30 million in expenditures, just $4 million of which came from the state party, the analysis found.
Why it matters: "Money is the mother's milk of politics," as the saying attributed to one legendary California politician goes.
- The advantage has allowed Democrats to blanket the airwaves with ads and build out their infrastructure beyond the election cycle.
The intrigue: While years of dominance in state politics have given the DFL a structural advantage, there are also wealthy Republicans in Minnesota capable of funding GOP-aligned campaigns and causes.
Driving the gap: GOP insiders cite a number of reasons for the lackluster fundraising, including a lack of trust in the state party due to past mismanagement and years of losses.
- Donor preference also comes into play, as some deep-pocketed local Republicans are less willing to spend the sums to rival DFL mega-donors like Alida Rockefeller Messinger, who gives millions to Democratic committees.
But concerns about the quality — and winnability — of candidates who win the coveted GOP endorsement are also persistent.
The bottom line: John Rouleau, executive director of the GOP-aligned Minnesota Jobs Coalition, tells Axios that high-dollar donors make their decisions based on both "what they believe in ... and where writing a check is going to make a difference."
- Candidates who can't appeal outside the GOP base, or those who simply lack the message and discipline needed to appear competitive, are hard sells.
Plus: What's next as GOP delegates gather in St. Cloud
Republican Party delegates will gather in St. Cloud Saturday to select a chair and chart a path forward.
- Hann, who took the reins after a rocky period last year, is running for a full term. He's expected to face several challengers.
What they're saying: Hann, who argues he needs more time to right the ship, says building inroads in the vote-dense metro will be essential. He cited high base turnout and the narrow losses in the attorney general and auditor races as bright spots.
- Other veteran GOP strategists have called for improved voter engagement efforts and "fundamentally reform[ing] how [the MNGOP] enterprise and party operates — including candidate selection."
What to watch: Kendall Qualls, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2020 and sought the Republican gubernatorial endorsement this year, tells Axios he's working externally on a "wholesale assessment" of the GOP's health and future.
- That effort may include focus groups, a deep dive into voter turnout data and a look at the endorsement process.
- "Money goes to candidates that can make the case that get voters and donors excited," he said. "That's something that we have to take ownership on."