How San Diego fee fatigue could hinder proposed tax hikes
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The financial crunch many San Diegans are already feeling could pose a challenge to a countywide tax hike possibly coming before voters this November, local leaders told Axios.
Why it matters: A proposed half-cent sales tax measure aims to raise a projected $360 million annually to address key issues — child care, health care, the Tijuana River sewage crisis and public safety.
The big picture: The question is whether the recent influx of new fees and rising costs will make tax increases a tough sell to voters at the ballot.
- Anyone who puts new tax revenue measures forward will have to prove their case as affordability and cost of living are top concerns for the public, San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce CEO Chris Cate told Axios.
- "Any type of conversation about revenue measures is going to be difficult," he said.
- Mayor Todd Gloria also acknowledged to Axios that residents are looking at the totality of what they're asked to pay to support local functions.
Zoom in: The coalition pursuing the citizen-led, countywide measure is working to collect the roughly 103,000 signatures needed to get on the November ballot, and then it would need a simple majority vote to pass.
- Service Employees International Union Local 221, child care advocacy group Children First San Diego and Cal Fire Local 2881 are behind the effort.
Follow the money: If it passes, election paperwork shows the fund would go toward protecting against state and federal cuts. The money would be spent as follows:
- Up to 60% on healthcare, food and childcare programs, including for low-income and uninsured residents;
- Nearly 23% on improving infrastructure to address the toxic sewage crisis in the Tijuana River Valley and addressing health impacts;
- About 18% on public safety, wildfire prevention and 911 response.
Context: The ballot measure would support programs that San Diego County is struggling to fund because of its own big budget problems.
What they're saying: "Without more resources coming into these major building blocks that make up our community, they will break down," director for Children First San Diego Courtney Baltiyskyy told Axios.
- The cost of losing these programs "looks different from one household to another, but if we start to see our communities completely deteriorate, affordability is only a part of the decision making on whether families stay in San Diego or have to leave," she said.
State of play: In addition to the proposed county tax hike, San Diego voters could also see two city tax measures on their ballots this year.
- San Diego officials are considering a new tax on empty second homes and vacation rentals. The city council rules committee is set to review the proposal on Wednesday, then it will go to the full council.
- Mailers from the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce and Airbnb's political committee are already using fee fatigue to dampen that effort, announcing: "San Diegans are paying more for EVERYTHING!"
- A second, labor union-led effort is pursuing a one-cent sales tax hike to fund city services, but that hasn't been filed yet.
Flashback: Voters rejected similar county and city sales tax increases in 2024.
Reality check: Gloria told Axios his proposed city budget for fiscal year 2027 will make "no assumptions" of any ballot measures existing or being successful.
- "We can't take a budget action in June with the hope that something happens in November," he said.
- That, Gloria said, would be "a continuation of the behavior that I think has gotten us into this place where delaying difficult choices, getting creative to try and balance our budget is not the way forward."
Axios reporter Claire Trageser contributing to this reporting.