Kids' population share is shrinking in San Diego
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The share of young children in San Diego County has fallen over the past two decades, mirroring national trends, census data shows.
Why it matters: Kids' population trends can reflect cities' ability to attract, retain and support families, but larger nationwide factors like immigration and declining birth rates are also at play.
By the numbers: San Diego County's share of residents under age 5 fell by 2.4 percentage points between 2005 and 2024, from 7.8% to 5.4%.
- That's among the highest in the country and larger than the national decline, which was 1.6 percentage points.
- Among the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, Salt Lake City saw the biggest dip in its population of young children (-3.2pp), followed by San Jose (-3pp) and Los Angeles (-2.8pp).
Between the lines: San Diego County's high cost of living, particularly housing and child care, also affects residents' decisions to grow their families.
- These population trends could also further reduce school enrollment.
Zoom in: Over the past decade, enrollment at public schools countywide has declined by about 27,000 students or 5%, with hundreds of schools losing students, Voice of San Diego reported.
- When fewer students enroll, schools get less state funding, which can lead to staffing and program cuts or school closures.
The big picture: The U.S. birth rate hit a record low in 2024, while life expectancy is approaching 80 following a pandemic-era dip.
- Those data points might suggest children will make up less of the overall population over time — fewer kids, more older folks.
- Yet the country grew around 1% between 2023 and 2024 — breakneck speed, as such things go — driven primarily by immigrants (including children, complicating the births vs. deaths picture).
Flashback: Back in 2015, urbanist Richard Florida found that "kids are far more prevalent in metros where immigrants and Latinos make up larger shares of the population."
What we're watching: The Trump administration's efforts to clamp down on and dissuade illegal immigration could affect kids' population shares in unpredictable ways.