Children's population share shrinks across major metros
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Young children's share of the population dropped across major U.S. metros over the past two decades, census data shows, mirroring national trends.
Why it matters: Kids' population trends can reflect cities' ability to attract, retain and support families.
- But larger nationwide factors are also at play, including birth and death rates as well as immigration.
By the numbers: Among the 50 biggest metros, Salt Lake City (-3.2 percentage points), San Jose (-3pp) and Los Angeles (-2.8pp) had the biggest dips in young children's share of their overall population between 2005 and 2024.
- Phoenix (-2.8pp), Denver (-2.6pp) and Atlanta (-2.5pp) also had sizable drops.
- That's compared to -1.6pp among the U.S. broadly, and includes children younger than 5.
Zoom in: Salt Lake's drop is notable given the area's large number of Mormons, who tend to have more children compared to other groups, per Pew Research Center.
- One possible explanation: Kids made up a relatively large share of the city's population to begin with, allowing for a bigger decrease over the covered period.
The big picture: The U.S. birth rate hit a record low in 2024, while life expectancy is approaching 80 following a pandemic-era dip.
- Those data points might suggest children will make up less of the overall population over time — fewer kids, more older folks.
- Yet the country grew around 1% between 2023 and 2024 — breakneck speed, as such things go — driven primarily by immigrants (including children, complicating the births vs. deaths picture).
Between the lines: Falling birth rates are fueling concerns about economic growth and societal change in some corners, particularly among "pro-natalist" conservatives.
Flashback: Back in 2015, urbanist Richard Florida found that "kids are far more prevalent in metros where immigrants and Latinos make up larger shares of the population."
What we're watching: The Trump administration's efforts to clamp down on and dissuade illegal immigration could affect kids' population shares in ways not yet well understood.
