Egg prices projected to rise 41% as USDA takes aim at California cage-free law
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Stores are selling out of eggs regularly leading to empty shelves. Photo: Kelly Tyko/Axios
The price of eggs is expected to rise by 41% this year as the bird flu continues to rip through the nation's agricultural economy, the federal government projected in a new report.
Why it matters: That's more than double the 20% increase predicted in January.
State of play: Egg prices have been climbing to record highs daily and shortages have been growing, which has led stores to limit how many eggs shoppers can buy.
The big picture: The outbreak of the highly pathogenic bird flu that began in 2022 affected 18.8 million hens in January.
- That's the highest monthly total of the three-year crisis, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
By the numbers: A dozen eggs in California cost $9.32 last week.
- That's up from $4.41 last year and $2.65 in 2022, the Union-Tribune reported.
Zoom out: The USDA's Economic Research Service provided a range for its 2025 price-growth prediction between 15% to 74.9%.
- Egg prices already increased 13.8% in January after rising by 8.4% in December, the report said.
- Prices this January were 53% higher than they were a year ago.
Between the lines: California law requires that eggs come from cage-free hens, owing to a ballot measure approved by voters in 2018, that was implemented in 2022.
- The USDA is now targeting Proposition 12 saying it is limiting supply and increasing costs, but the state's poultry industry says their business would suffer if it is reversed, the Los Angeles Times reported.
What's next: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Wednesday in a WSJ op-ed that the Trump administration "will invest up to $1 billion to curb this crisis and make eggs affordable again."
- "We are working with the Department of Government Efficiency to cut hundreds of millions of dollars of wasteful spending," Rollins wrote. "We will repurpose some of those dollars by investing in long-term solutions to avian flu, which has resulted in about 166 million laying hens being culled since 2022."
State of play: Restaurants, including Waffle House and Denny's, have added temporary egg surcharges because of high egg prices and shortages.
- But McDonald's has no plans to and is expanding its breakfast menu and offering a deal on Egg McMuffins this Sunday.
- Michael Gonda, McDonald's North America chief impact officer, wrote on LinkedIn Tuesday that "unlike others making news recently, you definitely WON'T see McDonald's USA issuing surcharges on eggs, which are 100% cage-free and sourced in the U.S."
Zoom in: Hilliker's Ranch, an egg farm in Lakeside, California has managed to keep delivering eggs to restaurants from San Ysidro to Oceanside, the Union-Tribune reported.
- San Diego resident Michael Tae Sweeney has also gone viral on Blue Sky with the "Trump take egg" meme, per a profile in Fast Company.
The intrigue: Rollins noted prices should "start coming down maybe this spring, this summer as we work to implement some of these bigger picture solutions."
- "Once we're past Easter, then we'll hopefully have some really good solutions for the American people," Rollins said.