Rural wins raise hopes Dems can reclaim former strongholds
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Democrats hope strong showings in rural Southwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday signal the party's fortunes are starting to turn around.
Why it matters: Despite decades of Democratic dominance, rural counties surrounding Pittsburgh started flipping Republican when Barack Obama ran for president in 2008 and have sprinted toward President Trump ever since.
Driving the news: A majority of voters in red Beaver, Washington and Westmoreland counties on Tuesday chose to retain the three liberal state Supreme Court justices — with rural Dems statewide flipping dozens of seats on school boards and town councils in the process.
Case in point: Lincoln Kretchmar, owner of a popular Beaver bakery, unseated 20-year Republican incumbent Mayor Thomas Todd Hamilton by just 13 votes in Beaver borough, where Republicans historically have dominated. Kretchmar's campaign centered on opposition to the borough's recent 56% property tax hike.
- Voters in deep-red Clearfield County elected Democrat Josh Maines to the Court of Common Pleas over two-term Republican District Attorney Ryan Sayers by just 178 votes in a county that backed President Trump by 51 percentage points last year.
What they're saying: Erin Gabriel, chair of the Beaver County Democratic Committee, said the success was partly due to "old-school retail politics," including shaking hands, attending community fundraisers and leading with issues such as affordability during Trump 2.0.
- "When you're trying to win back rural areas, it's less about party and more about relationships," she tells Axios.
- Schuyler Sheaffer, a Democratic strategist in Allegheny County who grew up in Clearfield County, said Maines offered a blueprint for Democrats rebuilding in rural Pennsylvania. Maines, a lifelong resident and respected attorney active in his church, is well-liked by neighbors and focused on hyperlocal issues, Sheaffer said.
- "The lesson is candidate quality matters," he says.
Between the lines: Educated and affluent suburbs such as the North Hills have moved left over the past decade, while former industrial communities in rural places like the Mon Valley have shifted right, but several of those industrial communities moved left this cycle, University of Pittsburgh history professor Lara Putnam tells Axios.
- "There isn't any part of the greater Pittsburgh region that didn't see this phenomenon," says Putnam.
State of play: Signs of this shift appeared last year. Southwest Pennsylvania merely maintained its 2020 level of support for Trump as the nation as a whole moved sharply right in 2024.
The other side: Trump said in a Truth Social post that Republicans underperformed nationally because of the federal shutdown and because he wasn't on the ballot, Axios' Rebecca Falconer reports.
What's next: Westmoreland County Dem chair Michelle McFall said the Supreme Court retention victory fired up Democrats. She said four Democratic candidates for state House seats are ready to run in Westmoreland next year.
- "We are creating this momentum. I think it can help us flip some state House seats," she says