Vance brings 2028 intrigue in hometown return to Middletown

• There's literal congestion from road closures, motorcades and Secret Service security.
• There's also the political kind, with speculation swirling about a crowded upcoming presidential race.

Driving the news: Vance's visit to Cleveland-Cliffs spotlights the steel town where he grew up — and the $1 billion project the Trump administration is helping to bring there.

• "This is a great day to be a resident of Middletown, Ohio," Vance said in a speech littered with "we," "us," "friends" and "neighbors." "It's a great day to be right here in Southwestern Ohio."
• He even highlighted local institution Central Pastry, joking that he stopped for a famed "ugly donut" before his speech.

Warren County Commissioner Dave Young, a Republican who has known Vance for years, tells Axios the VP's path from a difficult childhood in Middletown to the Marines, Yale and eventually the White House represents "the American dream."

• "Having someone that grew up literally disadvantaged, poor, made fun of, rise to the vice presidency is something people here can relate to," adds Young, who attended Friday's event.

State of play: Vance parlayed his Ohio roots into a national identity with his autobiography, "Hillbilly Elegy," a political launching pad that carried him from author to senator to the first Ohioan elected vice president.

• Southwest Ohio has presidential history of its own, including Cincinnati-born William Howard Taft.
• Vance now lives in East Walnut Hills, not far from Taft's birthplace — and ironically, just off a road bearing Taft's name.

When Vance is home for a political event or to visit family, William Howard Taft Road can become considerably less presidential and more like an impromptu parking lot.

• Closures around the VP's house last week stretched from Thursday through Sunday.

By now, the drill is familiar: Drivers find another way to work or home, while Vance's neighbors get funneled through security checkpoints.

• The security bubble follows Vance around town, too. "When he goes to restaurants, the Secret Service is everywhere around it," Young says.

For Young, the occasional disruption is outweighed by what it means to have someone from the region sitting in the White House.

Between the lines: Vance's return came as he's preparing to ramp up his travel for the midterms, NBC News reports, adding to speculation about what comes after Trump's presidency.

• University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven isn't waiting for an announcement.
• "From the moment he accepted the vice presidential nod, he's been running for president," Niven tells us.

The big picture: Trump carried Vance's native Butler County three times. Neighboring Hamilton County, where Vance has a residence, went Democratic in all three.

• That puts Vance at the intersection of the Trump coalition he'd need to inherit and voters he'd need to win over.
• Niven says Ohio is also essential to projecting "authenticity that you are what you appear to be" as Vance's national profile grows.

Vance made that connection especially personal Friday, standing inside the same steel plant where his grandfather once worked.

• "But Papaw was a welder in this place for 40 years," Vance said, "and today his grandson stands here as the vice president of these United States."

That makes stops like Cleveland-Cliffs about more than a homecoming. They let Vance connect his personal story to the Trump administration's push to revive American manufacturing in places like Middletown.

The bottom line: Whatever comes next, Southwest Ohio gives Vance something every presidential hopeful needs: a story and a potential political base.