Florida's Gen Z voters dumped Republicans
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Florida's young voters swung toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterms — an outcome that mirrors a national trend.
Why it matters: Trump's success with Gen Z voters, especially young men, fueled talk of a generational shift toward Republicans. Tuesday's results tell a different story.
By the numbers: In Tuesday's elections, 64% of Florida voters ages 18-29 backed Democratic candidate for Senate Angie Nixon, compared to 34% for Republican Ashley Moody, a 33-point swing from the 2024 presidential election, according to New York Times election data.
- For statewide House votes, similar percentages played out among the voting block: 64% favored Democrats to Republicans' 34%.
Between the lines: The Times' data did not account for the governor's race.
The big picture: Across the country, an estimated 66% of Gen Z voters backed Democratic House candidates Tuesday, compared with 31% for Republicans, according to Tufts University's CIRCLE, which analyzed preliminary data from the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project.
Zoom in: In Florida's statewide House races, Gen Z voters swung left by double digits in every category measured by the Times, including gender and race.
- Men swung 36 points to the left, while women swung 31 points, though a higher percentage of women voted Democrat (73% compared to 54% of men), data show.
- Hispanic voters had the largest shift, swinging 44 points toward the left compared to 2024, followed by white (28 points) and Black voters (14 points).
- Black voters led in overall support in House races, with 91% voting Blue, followed by Hispanic voters (69%) and white voters (52%), per the Times.
What they're saying: "Gen Z voters are proving that they have the power not just to decide races, but to be the decisive factor in flipping both chambers of Congress," Santiago Mayer, executive director of the Gen Z-led voter outreach organization Voters of Tomorrow, said in a statement.
Yes, but: Republicans haven't necessarily lost the young conservatives who helped Trump win in 2024.
- An earlier More in Common study identified a faction of younger Trump supporters embracing more hard-line views on gender roles and religion.
The bottom line: Surveys can't tell us whether those voters switched parties or a different mix of young Americans showed up Tuesday.
- But the outcome raises new doubts about whether Republicans can build a lasting coalition among Americans under 30.