• That money will fund things like security, transportation and a free three-week fan festival in Bayfront Park that will stream the matches being played at Hard Rock Stadium, according to the Miami Herald.

State of play: The Miami host committee says the World Cup will drive "tourism, job creation, and global visibility for the region."

• A 2024 economic impact study commissioned by FIFA estimated that the Miami metro area could see between $920 million and $1.3 billion in economic output between June 2023 and August 2026.

Friction point: Economists have long been skeptical of similar studies published by tournament organizers, says Holy Cross professor Victor Matheson, an expert in sports economics.

• After reviewing a summary of the Miami report, Matheson told Axios that the estimates appear to be "wildly exaggerated" and "overlook a couple of huge issues."

The other side: FIFA declined to comment for this story.

• The Miami host committee did not respond to a request for comment.

Zoom in: A large percentage of attendees will be from the Miami area, so the hundreds they spend per ticket will go to FIFA instead of into the local economy, he argued.

• "Thus, any spending on tickets by local fans actually makes Miami poorer, not richer."
• He says some spending by visiting fans is also likely to "leak out of the economy," pointing to hotel room stays paid to large hotel chains.

Flashback: A 2004 study Matheson co-authored on the 1994 World Cup in the U.S. concluded that the $4 billion economic impact that organizers projected "probably did not materialize."

• Researchers concluded there might have been a negative impact overall.

Still, Matheson predicts Miami will likely see a positive economic impact since it doesn't have to build new stadiums or tourist infrastructure.

• And local governments collect resort taxes from hotels, which are likely to be busier than normal because the World Cup is happening during Miami's summer off-season.

Case in point: During the Club World Cup from June 14-July 1, hotel occupancy was about 72% in Miami-Dade County — up nearly 8% from the same period last year — according to the Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau.

Andrew Zimbalist, a professor emeritus of economics at Smith College, tells Axios that Miami could see a boost in tourism, which he says is the main way host cities make money.

• Still, Zimbalist — who also reviewed FIFA's Miami report — says he doesn't "expect a massive increase" and says U.S. immigration policies could deter foreign visitors.
• Depending on the total operating costs, Zimbalist says, "it looks to me like in the best of circumstances it's a neutral economic impact. It's more likely to have a negative impact."

Dennis Coates — an economics professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County — notes that the FIFA study projects government revenues of up to $25 million.

• Compared to the $53 million governments are investing, Coates says: "That's not a good deal."

The bottom line: Both Coates and Matheson say there are benefits to hosting a World Cup, even if it doesn't make the government money.

• Local fans will get the chance to attend matches or go to watch parties, and local shops could see business boom, Coates says.
• But he said even if the projections are correct, Miami's windfall would represent a small fraction of its economy.
• "To say that this is going to be this huge driver of benefit for the community, probably not."