Heat face historic odds to survive Play-In Tournament and make playoffs

Why it matters: Making the playoffs could hurt Miami's chances of building a more competitive roster next season.

Between the lines: Miami would lose its first-round pick to Oklahoma City if it makes the playoffs, per the Miami Herald. (The Heat would have a 9.4% chance of a top-four pick if it were to miss the playoffs)

• The Heat could also still receive Golden State's first-round pick from the Butler trade.
• If Miami makes the playoffs, it's unlikely that this Butler-less roster could compete against the likes of Cleveland or Boston, as ESPN notes.

Stunning stat: No 10th seed in Play-In Tournament history has advanced to the playoffs since the play-in format was introduced in 2020, the Herald reports.

What we're watching: The Heat (37-45) — who finished with their worst record since 2014-15 — play the ninth-seed Chicago Bulls tonight at 7:30pm on ESPN.

• The loser misses the playoffs, while the winner will play Friday against Atlanta to make the playoffs.