Colorado's unexpectedly interesting House race
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Lauren Boebert's facing uncommon competition for her CD-4 seat. Photo: John Frank/Axios
Lauren Boebert's challenger in Colorado's 4th Congressional District race is testing whether four M's — money, momentum and moderate messaging — can crack one of the state's last Republican strongholds.
Why it matters: CD-4's a test of whether a Democrat running to the middle can peel away enough Republican and unaffiliated voters to compete in Trump country.
The big picture: Boebert, who remains closely aligned with Trump's agenda, entered the midterms' final month facing political and personal distractions.
Meanwhile, Eileen Laubacher is drawing attention as a moderate counterpoint after Democrats moved left in this year's primaries.
- The former home-school mom and retired two-star Navy admiral from Highlands Ranch is emphasizing fiscal restraint, national security and a willingness to work across party lines.
- A longtime Republican, Laubacher became unaffiliated in 2024 and registered as a Democrat last year.
- Notably, Laubacher declined to endorse democratic socialist congressional nominee Melat Kiros.
Follow the money: Laubacher raised $10.35 million through June — more than 10 times Boebert's roughly $1 million haul.
Zoom in: Douglas County is the linchpin.
- Boebert won the sprawling CD-4 by nearly 12 points in 2024, less than half Republican Ken Buck's roughly 24-point advantage two years earlier.
- The shift was even sharper in DougCo. Boebert finished just 1,343 votes ahead after Buck won the county by 26,496 votes in 2022.
That means Laubacher likely needs to win Douglas County — and comfortably — to offset Boebert's large Republican advantages across the Eastern Plains.
State of play: Election forecasters say Boebert has the upper hand, though they differ on how competitive the race is.
- The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections call CO-4 "Solid Republican."
- Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk HQ say Boebert's "likely" to win, but Split Ticket calls the race a "toss-up."
The intrigue: Polymarket prices Boebert ahead.
What we're watching: Boebert and Laubacher debate Monday.
- New financial reports are due Oct. 15 and will show whether Laubacher's maintained her financial edge.