Charlotte meteorologist Brad Panovich explains chance of rain, talks AI in meteorology and more
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Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photo: WCNC
We recently caught up with WCNC's chief meteorologist, Brad Panovich, to hear his thoughts on the Apple weather app — and why he thinks you should delete it.
Why it matters: During the interview, we hit on a few other topics in the world of meteorology, including what "chance of rain" means, AI replacing your local meteorologist and federal cuts impacting forecasts.
On the chance of rain. A few years ago, a trend on TikTok made many people realize they didn't understand what the chance of rain in a forecast actually meant.
- Panovich explains it like this: The probability of precipitation, AKA "chance of rain," is how much of the area will see rain multiplied by the confidence in the forecast that it will rain.
- "So, 100% chance of rain doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be a heavy all-day rain," Panovich says. "It just means we're 100% confident that everybody's going to get some rain at some point."
- That said, it might just be a short shower, not a reason to cancel your beach plans.
On whether AI could replace your local weatherperson. So far, it hasn't. Panovich says he's been using AI for years as a tool to improve weather models and save time.
- "It just makes our job easier," Panovich says. "I can focus more on communicating the forecast, putting out better graphics...so people understand it, and I don't have to spend as many hours crunching numbers."
On federal cuts impacting the forecasts. Government cuts have led the National Weather Service to reduce weather balloon launches across the U.S.
- Those balloons gather crucial information for forecasting, such as a three-dimensional view of the atmosphere.
- "If there's a cold front in North Dakota right now and it's going to be our weather this weekend, we would not have a good sampling of that storm," Panovich says, "because the weather balloons in Fargo or Grand Forks are not being launched."
- This wouldn't be the first time accuracy has declined due to a lack of data. During the pandemic, fewer commercial airplanes meant less information was collected from aircraft, which impacted the forecasts.