Trump’s N.C. visit caps a hard week for Pat McCrory

Two polls released this week show U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, now running ahead of McCrory by double digits.

Driving the news: Budd is set to appear on stage with Trump at a rally in Selma, N.C. on Saturday.

• Also on stage will be controversial U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who’s been denounced by many of the state’s top Republicans in recent weeks, including U.S. Sens. Thom Tillis and Richard Burr, who called Cawthorn an “embarrassment.”

Why it matters: Budd’s gains indicate that millions in spending by the conservative political action committee Club for Growth Action — which has backed numerous Trump-endorsed candidates across the country, including Budd — is paying off.

• It also signals that not all of the Trump-endorsed candidates have the same trajectory this primary season. In Budd’s case, the Trump bump has arrived some 10 months after the endorsement, as Club for Growth really started pumping money into the effort.

“North Carolinians have never seen an outside interest group try to buy an election like this,” McCrory, criticizing Budd of being “bought” by Club for Growth, told Axios Thursday.

The big picture: The outcome of this race will play a role in determining which party controls the U.S. Senate and could help or harm President Joe Biden’s ability to accomplish his agenda in the remaining two years of his first term.

State of play: Budd and McCrory, along with former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker and military veteran Marjorie Eastman, will face off in the Republican primary May 17.

• The winner is expected to face Democrat Cheri Beasley in the general election to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Richard Burr.

Budd forged to the front of the pack in the race in a poll released Tuesday by Emerson College and The Hill, that showed him ahead of McCrory by 16 points. One day later, Club for Growth released its own poll that showed Budd leading by 13 points.

Reality check: Polls aren’t always the best indicator of who will win an election, and internal polls are commissioned by campaigns who often try to use the polls to their own advantage. But the fact that two polls — one commissioned by a conservative PAC and one conducted by a news outlet — show Budd has a double-digit lead is significant.

• “We’ve gone from 40 points down at the start of this campaign to having a commanding lead today and our campaign momentum is only going to increase with President Donald Trump’s rally this weekend,” Budd said in a statement after The Hill released its poll Tuesday.

What he’s saying: In a conversation with me on Thursday, McCrory equated Budd with Cawthorn, calling them an “embarrassment, to the state, to our party and to Congress.”

• And he said both have made “reckless” statements about Ukraine, accomplished “nothing” in Congress and voted against certification of the 2020 election.

In a conversation with me on Thursday, McCrory equated Budd with Cawthorn, calling them an “embarrassment, to the state, to our party and to Congress,” saying they’ve made “reckless” statements about Ukraine, accomplished “nothing” in Congress and voted against certification of the 2020 election.

• McCrory said his own internal polling shows Budd and McCrory in a “dead heat.”
• He said ads funded by Club for Growth were misleading, and called some of their ads “propaganda.”
• “Some of the ads have been so deceptive,” he said. “I even decided to vote against me.”

What’s next: Trump will take the stage at the Selma rally at 7 pm. Other speakers include Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and 13th congressional district candidate Bo Hines, who Trump also endorsed.

Go deeper: Axios’ full guide to the 2022 primaries.