6 primary election predictions for Charlotte

[Agenda story: A skimmable guide to who you will be voting for on March 15]

Here are some predictions I have for how the day will go. Keep in mind this is not what I necessarily want to happen, but what I think will happen.

(1) Marco Rubio will win on the Republican side in Mecklenburg County.

He generally does well in more urban areas, and I think it will be close between him and Ted Cruz but Rubio will get the edge. U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis has backed Rubio (he’s from Lake Norman area) as has U.S. Rep. Robert Pittenger of Charlotte.

It’s not really going to matter though because I’m pretty sure Donald Trump is going to win the state solidly.

(2) Hillary Clinton will win on the Democratic side.

This is not going to be close, either here or in the state as a whole.

(3) The bond referendum will pass.

The state has generally backed reasonable bond packages and I haven’t sensed any meaningful groundswell against this one. This will mean UNC Charlotte will get a new science building.

(4) Turnout will be somewhere between 30 and 40 percent.

That would make it a little bit higher than the past two presidential primary elections, but this is also the first time ours is held in March instead of May. The nomination is far from locked up at this point. Early voting turnout was already at record levels.

(5) Gov. McCrory will still win Mecklenburg.

I don’t think the anger over toll lanes will be enough to drive masses of people to his Republican challenger, Robert Brawley. Now, I do think he will lose his home county in November but that’s more a function of demographics and voting trends here.

(6) There will be an issue involving voter ID

This is the first time people will have to show ID to vote, and this has been a contentious partisan issue statewide. There will be an example somewhere in Mecklenburg County of a Democrat who says they are unable to vote because they don’t have proper ID.