Federal lab cuts could hamper fire forecasting efforts
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Potential further cuts to federal science programs are threatening weather forecasts crucial to predicting wildfire behavior.
Why it matters: Much of the West saw a dry winter, an early sign that fire risk could be elevated throughout the region this summer.
State of play: Researchers say the biggest wildfires emerge when long-term conditions like drought and dry vegetation overlap with short-term weather events, a combination that's already difficult to forecast.
- The Rocky Mountain region tends to see more burned acreage in summers following a La Niña fall, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) research scientist Mike Hobbins tells us.
- "That portends very poorly for this summer."
Between the lines: Much of that forecasting work depends on federal labs like Boulder-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and CIRES, whose funding the Trump administration has already cut or threatened to cut.
- Researchers operate as an "ecosystem," CIRES associate director Jen Kay tells us. Losing tools like NCAR's supercomputing center would affect projects at multiple labs, she says.
What they're saying: "You check your phone [for the forecast], that came from a computer model that someone ran on a supercomputer … all of that infrastructure comes from the federal government," Kay says.
- "If you cut NOAA by 50%, you cut the quality of the forecast you get on your phone by 50%."
How it works: Not all drought-driven fire risk looks the same, Hobbins says.
- Short dry spells can parch grasses and brush, while years of drought can dry larger fuels like logs and forest litter.
- "What we really want to see is that [the science] ... get into the hands of state, federal, tribal local agencies in decision support," Hobbins said.
Reality check: Most fires never become major incidents, according to Janice Coen of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
- One or two fires often account for roughly 90% of the acreage burned in a season, says Coen, who works on weather–wildfire behavior models.
- That makes predicting rapid fire growth more important than predicting the number of fire starts.
Zoom in: Wind is one of the biggest drivers of fire growth — and one of the hardest factors to forecast.
- Broader weather patterns can be forecast up to two weeks out. But shorter-term wind patterns that drive explosive fires are typically predictable only a day or two in advance.
- Researchers are using those patterns to identify wind hot spots in mountain areas where utilities may need additional safeguards.
What's next: Kay says cuts disproportionately affect student fellowships and new research projects, potentially slowing future advances.
- Uncertainty is already affecting researchers' work. "You don't know what projects will continue, you don't know what people will be there," Kay says.
The bottom line: Scientists say better wildfire forecasting can help agencies position resources, harden infrastructure and reduce risk. But the research behind those advances is now under attack.