Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Axios Visuals

Even if Friday's jobs report shows a big number, it is becoming clear hiring slowed and likely even reversed course in July and real-time indicators suggest the employment situation worsened into August.

Driving the news: Payroll processor ADP's monthly jobs report showed private companies added 167,000 jobs last month, well below the 1.2 million expected by economists and far below June's 4.8 million jobs added.

Why it matters: "We believe the labor market reached an inflection point in July, starting what will likely be a slower phase of recovery," economists at Nomura wrote in a Wednesday note to clients following the release of the ADP survey.

Where it stands: Additionally, new data shows that workers who lost their jobs and were brought back in May and June are again being laid off or warned they soon could be.

  • A survey by Cornell University and analytics firm RIWI released Tuesday found 31% of returning workers reported being laid off a second time, and another 26% say their employer warned them they may be laid off again.
  • While "57% of those initially laid off/furloughed reported being put back on payroll sometime after their initial dismissal, 39% of such respondents say they were put back on payroll yet were not asked to return to actual work."

The intrigue: That survey's findings support the thesis that jobs gains and the decline in unemployment seen in the May and June did not reflect workers "getting back to the business of actually working — but were rather being 're-payrolled,' in many instances in order to meet the loan forgiveness requirements of the PPP," Cornell researchers note.

What to watch: Reports of Americans facing layoffs and furloughs "were surprisingly higher for workers in states that have not been experiencing recent COVID-19 surges, relative to those in surging states," the survey found.

The big picture: Chris Jackson, senior vice president for Ipsos Public Affairs, says that the latest data from the Axios-Ipsos poll show...

  • "Only about half of the U.S. workforce is back to work under their normal circumstances."
  • "People working from home has come down only slightly from the peak, suggesting few white collar workers are going back to the workplace."
  • "While the number of people ‘let go’ have declined, the number of people ‘not working’ or out of the labor force has remained high suggesting this recession is shrinking the labor force."

Go deeper

Axios-Ipsos poll: Voters of color worry about militias, arrests

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±2.6% margin of error; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Fears that armed militias, police or COVID-19 await them at the polls are disproportionately shaping how Americans of color think about in-person voting, according to an Ipsos poll for Axios.

Why it matters: Participation by voters of color could decide whether President Trump or Joe Biden wins, and whether Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress.

3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump to issue at least 100 pardons and commutations before leaving office

Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump plans to issue at least 100 pardons and commutations on his final full day in office Tuesday, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.

Why it matters: This is a continuation of the president's controversial December spree that saw full pardons granted to more than two dozen people — including former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, longtime associate Roger Stone and Charles Kushner, the father of Trump's senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

  • The pardons set to be issued before Trump exits the White House will be a mix of criminal justice ones and pardons for people connected to the president, the sources said.
  • CNN first reported this news.

Go deeper: Convicts turn to D.C. fixers for Trump pardons

Schumer's m(aj)ority checklist

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Capitalizing on the Georgia runoffs, achieving a 50-50 Senate and launching an impeachment trial are weighty to-dos for getting Joe Biden's administration up and running on Day One.

What to watch: A blend of ceremonies, hearings and legal timelines will come into play on Tuesday and Wednesday so Chuck Schumer can actually claim the Senate majority and propel the new president's agenda.