Beshear and his son, Nov. 5. Photo: Michael Clevenger/Courier Journal, Louisville Courier Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Kentucky Democrat Andy Beshear was holding a narrow lead Tuesday night over President Trump's pick for governor, incumbent Matt Bevin.

Why it matters: A win from Beshear would suggest that the impeachment inquiry into Trump is not the useful 2020 strategy Republicans assumed it would be, even in Trump-friendly states.

Between the lines: Bevin has a 53% disapproval rate and is the second-most unpopular governor in the U.S., according to Morning Consult's Q3 polling. Trump's popularity in Kentucky, which he won with 62.5% in 2016, apparently didn't give Bevin a real edge against Beshear.

What they're saying: "The President just about dragged Gov. Matt Bevin across the finish line, helping him run stronger than expected in what turned into a very close race at the end. A final outcome remains to be seen," Brad Parscale, Trump 2020 campaign manager, said in a statement Tuesday.

Go deeper: Trump slams Dems in rallying cry for Kentucky governor ahead of race

Editor’s note: This story is being updated as the situation unfolds.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Politics: Ex-FDA chief: Pence campaigning after COVID exposure puts others at risk — Mark Meadows: "We are not going to control the pandemic"— COVID-19 looms over White House Halloween celebrations.
  2. Health: 13 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — Fauci says maybe we should mandate masks if people don't wear themU.S. reports over 80,000 new cases for second consecutive day.
  3. World: Italy tightens restrictions Spain declares new state of emergency.

Amy Coney Barrett's immediate impact

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

In her first week on the job, Amy Coney Barrett may be deciding which votes to count in the presidential election. By her third week, she’ll be deciding the fate of the Affordable Care Act.

Where it stands: The Senate votes on Barrett’s nomination tomorrow. If she’s confirmed, Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to swear her in at the Supreme Court within hours, an administration official tells Axios.

Texas Democrats beg Biden to spend now

Photo: Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

The Biden campaign is rebuffing persistent pleas from Texas Democrats to spend at least $10 million in the Lone Star state, several people familiar with the talks tell Axios.

Why it matters: If Texas — which has 38 electoral votes and is steadily getting more blue, but hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1976 — flipped to the Biden column, it would be game over. But the RealClearPolitics polling average stubbornly hovers at +2.6 for Trump — and Team Biden appears more focused on closer targets.