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Iran has followed through on its threat to enrich uranium beyond the purity limit set under the 2015 nuclear deal, the UN's nuclear watchdog confirmed today.

Why it matters: Iran is attempting to loosen its sanctions chokehold by demonstrating to the U.S. that there are costs to "maximum pressure," and to the deal's other signatories that, absent a stronger economic lifeline to Tehran, they could soon be facing a nuclear crisis.

  • Iran's steps toward increased nuclear enrichment so far have been limited and reversible, but the regime says more will come in 60-day increments.
  • "While any escalation is a gamble, Iranian leaders appear ready to resume the game of 'chicken' that defined the country's relations with the West from 2006 to 2015," Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies writes for Axios Expert Voices.
  • "This could spiral out of control quite quickly depending on U.S. actions," Wendy Sherman, who served as the top U.S. negotiator on the 2015 deal, told reporters on a briefing call today. "I think this will be a step-by-step process, but one which could lead us to military action, which would be not only dangerous but disastrous."

The big picture: Rob Malley of the International Crisis Group, who recently met with Iranian officials, says the plan in Tehran after President Trump pulled out of the deal was to "hunker down and wait."

  • A year later... sanctions are hitting harder than expected, the Europeans have failed to deliver much economic breathing room and it's looking risky to bet on a Trump loss in 2020.
  • Iranian leaders believe Trump doesn't want war, and they hope pressure on the nuclear front will convince him to dial back sanctions and abandon his maximalist demands. Breaching the deal also provides them with cards for any future negotiations.
  • “It's both a very unyielding, uncompromising stance — 'we're not going to be bullied, we're not going to negotiate with a gun to our head' — but it's also a notion that if the right conditions exist, they would be prepared to talk," Malley says of the Iranian position.

The European signatories want to deter further Iranian escalation while keeping the teetering deal from collapsing entirely.

  • "They don’t believe the maximum pressure strategy is working, and they don’t think anybody would gain from war," Richard Dalton, a former U.K. ambassador to Iran, said on the call.

What to watch: More significant breaches of the deal could make the European position untenable, and even lead to the re-imposition of sanctions. Each step also raises the chances of a military strike from the U.S. or Israel.

Go deeper: Iran's nuclear escalation raises stakes for U.S. and Europe

Go deeper

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Facebook: Metaverse won't "move fast and break things"

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Facebook on Monday said it will invest $50 million over two years in global research and program partners to ensure its metaverse products "are developed responsibly."

Why it matters: "It's almost the opposite of that now long-abandoned slogan of 'move fast and break things,'" Facebook's VP of global affairs Nick Clegg told Axios in an interview at The Atlantic Festival Monday.

Ina Fried, author of Login
2 hours ago - Technology

Facebook presses "pause" on Instagram Kids

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Facebook's announcement Monday that it was "pausing development" on Instagram Kids did little to slow a wave of criticism of the project ahead of a Senate hearing Thursday.

Yes, but: There's an argument to be made for building kids' versions of popular apps, even if their adult versions are causing real-world harms.

Ford's big plans to turbocharge the electric car industry in the U.S.

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Ford Motor Company’s new $11 billion manufacturing plan, the biggest component of which will sit just outside Memphis, is part of a much bigger effort to put the U.S. at the center of the electric vehicle revolution, executive chairman Bill Ford says.

The big picture: Ford’s plans — for enormous facilities in both Tennessee and Kentucky, employing a combined 11,000 workers — are ambitious manufacturing efforts designed to minimize their environmental impact.