The stock market isn't applauding solid corporate earnings, but that's not new this quarter — it's been happening for the past year.
Why it matters: Fears of a downturn have increased, with investors worried about slowing global growth, the tax cut "sugar high" wearing off, and ongoing trade disputes.
Data: BlackRock Investment Institute; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios. Note: MSCI Earnings Growth Rate Index shows 12-month forward earnings estimates for the MSCI Index.
“It’s starting to feel like the market is pricing in a greater likelihood of a recession in 2019," Lee Piantedosi of investment management firm Eaton Vance told the Wall Street Journal last week.
Analysts predict earnings growth will hit 20% this year, but heightened uncertainty has them rethinking 2019 estimates that already were 50% lower.
"The consensus outlook for earnings growth is way too rosy next year," Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson wrote in a note this week., adding that the sell-off could turn into a full-fledged bear market (i.e., decline of 20% of more).
Richard Turnill, BlackRock's chief investment strategist, wrote in a recent note that uncertainty around future earnings growth "will likely remain high.'"
Executives have been warning about prospects for their companies' future quarters, even as they report solid results.
Amazon and Caterpillar are recent examples of this, while Boeing and Ford are among the companies that gave weaker-than-expected guidance earlier this year.
