May 1, 2019 - Economy & Business

Bets are increasing that the Fed will cut interest rates

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets

Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Investors are raising their expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least once this year, ahead of today's Fed policy meeting.

Driving the news: Fed funds futures prices show traders see a 65% chance the Fed cuts rates at least once this year and a greater than 20% chance of 2 rate cuts, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Bets on more than 1 rate hike have picked up notably over the past month.

  • "Markets have frequently underestimated Federal Reserve actions over the last few years, but lately the skepticism has been striking," LPL Financial chief investment strategist John Lynch said in a note to clients.

Flashback: The Fed forecast raising rates 3 times coming into 2019 and had predicted 2 rate increases as recently as January.

  • Axios reported in March that White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow wanted the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates by 50 basis points. Trump has ratcheted up those calls ever since.

The bottom line: Most investors say they don't believe Trump's pressure is going to influence the Fed, but bets have risen that the Fed will cut rates as Trump has increased calls for them.

Go deeper: The Federal Reserve looks to be laying the groundwork for interest rate cuts

Go deeper

Axios
Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 19,412,292 — Total deaths: 722,066 — Total recoveries — 11,773,112 — Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 4,945,795 — Total deaths: 161,456 — Total recoveries: 1,623,870 — Total tests: 60,415,558 — Map.
  3. Politics: Trump says he's prepared to sign executive orders on coronavirus aid.
  4. Public health: Fauci says chances are "not great" that COVID-19 vaccine will be 98% effective
  5. Science: Indoor air is the next coronavirus frontline.
  6. World: Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases — Gates Foundation puts $150 million behind coronavirus vaccine production.
Go deeper (<1 min. read)Arrow
Bryan Walsh
2 hours ago - Health

Indoor air is the next coronavirus frontline

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

A growing body of research has made it clear that airborne transmission of the coronavirus is possible.

Why it matters: That fact means indoor spaces can become hot spots. Those spaces also happen to be where most business and schooling takes place, so any hope for a return to normality will require better ways of filtering indoor air.

Go deeper (2 min. read)Arrow
Erica Pandey
5 hours ago - Economy & Business

The silver linings of online school

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Online learning can be frustrating for students, teachers and parents, but some methods are working.

The big picture: Just as companies are using this era of telework to try new things, some principals, teachers and education startups are treating remote learning as a period of experimentation, too.

Go deeper (2 min. read)Arrow