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Data: St. Louis Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

Members of the Fed, including chair Jerome Powell, have spent nearly a month talking about the central bank's shift to average inflation targeting in an effort to boost U.S. inflation and it has fallen on deaf ears.

Driving the news: A survey from the Cleveland Fed found that "despite extensive coverage in the news media, Powell’s speech apparently did not reach or register with the vast majority of the population."

  • Even for those who were aware, "the news had little impact."

Why it matters: Inflation expectations are a core tenet of inflation and the Fed has failed to move the needle on the public's outlook.

  • "[B]oth before and after the announcement, respondents’ two most commonly perceived objectives of the Federal Reserve were maintaining a strong dollar and keeping interest rates low to reduce the government’s cost of borrowing," the Cleveland Fed notes.
  • Perhaps more importantly, "investors are not convinced the Fed will succeed," Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA, says in a note to clients.

Be smart: "Investors are assuming that the risk of deflation is rising as the Fed’s ability to ensure a sustained recovery on its own is limited," Ricchiuto says.

  • "They highlight the fact that the Fed’s ability to further influence forward rates is exceptionally limited."

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Oct 19, 2020 - Economy & Business

The Fed is starting to question its own policies

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Several officials at the Fed are beginning to worry about asset bubbles and excessive risk-taking as a result of their extraordinary policy interventions, James Politi writes for the Financial Times, citing interviews with multiple Fed presidents and members of the Board of Governors.

Details: Some are now pushing for "tougher financial regulation" as concerns grow that monetary policy is "encouraging behavior detrimental to economic recovery and creating pressure for additional bailouts."

Amy Harder, author of Generate
5 hours ago - Energy & Environment

Climate change goes mainstream in presidential debate

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty

The most notable part of Thursday’s presidential debate on climate change was the fact it was included as a topic and assumed as a fact.

The big picture: This is the first time in U.S. presidential history that climate change was a featured issue at a debate. It signals how the problem has become part of the fabric of our society. More extreme weather, like the wildfires ravaging Colorado, is pushing the topic to the front-burner.

Finally, a real debate

Photo: Morry Gash/AP

A more disciplined President Trump held back from the rowdy interruptions at tonight's debate in Nashville, while making some assertions so outlandish that Joe Biden chuckled and even closed his eyes. A Trump campaign adviser told Axios: "He finally listened." 

The result: A real debate.