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Data: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

The International Energy Agency's newly released World Energy Outlook finds that oil demand for passenger vehicles is slated to peak in the mid-2020s due to more efficiency, biofuels, and electric vehicles. That's according to their "new policies" scenario, which models not only existing policies but also countries' announced plans and emissions targets.

But, but, but: That projected mid-2020s peak doesn't mean that overall global demand for crude oil is reaching an inflection point anytime soon. That's because other uses — petrochemicals, heavy freight, shipping and planes — remain robust.

  • Add it all up and the report sees global crude oil demand rising slightly to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2040 (it's roughly 100 mbd right now).

Why it matters: The findings underscore that despite heavy and justified attention to electric cars, passenger transport is just one part of the wider equation when it comes to oil.

By the numbers: As the Financial Times flagged here, the report projects that while the numbers of cars in the global fleet would soar 80% by 2040, oil demand for passenger cars, which is over 21 mbd right now, would be around 23 mbd in the late 2020s. But, elsewhere...

  • "Oil demand for trucks grows by 4 mb/d over the period to 2040, even though vehicle and logistical efficiencies avoid nearly 5.5 mb/d additional demand growth in 2040. Oil use in petrochemicals sees the largest growth (5 mb/d) of any sector," the IEA states.

Yes, but: The annual report also models a "sustainable development" scenario — a wholly upended global energy system where policy and investment trends are bent to be consistent with the goals of the Paris climate agreement. On the oil side, that means overall demand peaks in almost all nations by 2030. Per an IEA summary...

  • "By 2040, cars that rely solely on gasoline and diesel are 40% more efficient than today; there are 930 million electric cars on the road (50% of the global car fleet); a quarter of buses are electric; and nearly 20% of fuels used by trucks are low or zero carbon."
  • "There are also major changes in most other sectors and as a result, total oil demand in 2040 in this scenario is 25 mb/d lower than today."

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14 mins ago - Axios on HBO

Preview: "Axios on HBO" interviews Bob Woodward

On the next episode of "Axios on HBO," journalist Bob Woodward tells Axios National Political Correspondent Jonathan Swan why he spoke out about President Trump being the "wrong man for the job."

  • "I did not want to join the ranks of the Senate Republicans who know that Trump is the wrong man for the job, but won't say it publicly," Woodward said.

Catch the full interview on Monday, Sept. 28 at 11 p.m. ET/PT on all HBO platforms.

Updated 23 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 32,601,345 — Total deaths: 989,761 — Total recoveries: 22,512,527Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 7,034,824 — Total deaths: 203,789 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,488,275Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Summer college enrollment offers a glimpse of COVID-19's effect.

Where Amy Coney Barrett stands on the biggest issues

Photo: Aurora Samperio/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Judge Amy Coney Barrett — expected to be named by President Trump today to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — would give conservatives a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, and an edge on issues from abortion to the limits of presidential power.

The big picture: Republicans love the federal appeals court judge's age — she is only 48 — and her record as a steadfast social conservative.