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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The latest measure of inflation is set for release Friday, as market watchers continue to process last week’s confusing jobs report and try to game out the economic impact of the latest coronavirus variant.

Why it matters: Americans, politicians, and regulators are laser-focused on price gains picking up steam and impacting the overall economic recovery.

By the numbers: Consensus estimates among economists call for the core Consumer Price Index, which measures the price of goods and services excluding food and energy, to have risen by 0.4% in November from October.

  • That compares to the 0.6% hike seen in October, and September’s 0.2% uptick.

What they’re saying: A group of top economists have ramped up their inflation expectations in recent months, and downgraded their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2021, according to a new NABE Outlook survey released Monday.

  • "Nearly three-fourths of respondents — 71% — anticipate that the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, the change in the core PCE price index, will not cool down to or below the Fed’s target of 2% year-over-year until the second half of 2023 or later," said NABE vice president Julia Coronado, in a statement.

The bottom line: The Fed has already reversed course on its stance that higher prices would be temporary and that admission may change the central bank's view on its policies.

Go deeper

Biden names Sarah Bloom Raskin as Fed's top banking regulator

Sarah Bloom Raskin during a Fed meeting in 2013. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

President Biden will nominate Sarah Bloom Raskin as the Federal Reserve's top Wall Street cop, a Biden administration official said, one of three nominees being unveiled for the critical open seats on the central bank's board of governors.

Why it matters: It's Biden's biggest mark yet on the influential economic body that's center stage as the country grapples with inflation rising at the fastest pace in decades and a recovering labor market.

Rising mortgage rates could slow house price surge

Chart: Axios Visuals

Mortgage rates have jumped to their highest level since early 2020.

Why it matters: The rising cost of home loans could slow the booming American market for residential real estate.

Retail sales slipped a surprising 1.9% in December

Shoppers in San Francisco on Dec. 22. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Retail sales fell 1.9% in December compared to the previous month, suggesting that shoppers bought holiday gifts earlier last year as they faced rising inflation and supply chain issues.

Driving the news: The data is much lower than the 0% change predicted by economists, according to FactSet.