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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The coronavirus pandemic will bring about the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, the IMF predicted Tuesday in its latest World Economic Outlook — and that is its optimistic outlook.

The state of play: The Fund admitted in a rare show of doomsaying that damage could be far worse than its projections and that while there's some chance they could be positively surprised, "downside risks prevail."

Why it matters: The organization's baseline expectation is for a recession "far worse" than the 2008 financial crisis, with global GDP contracting by 3% this year. That's a drastic downgrade from its forecast of 6.3% growth in January, and 30 times worse than the economic decline in 2008.

  • "This is a truly global crisis, as no country is spared," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said during a media briefing.

The big picture: Global GDP is expected to face a cumulative loss of about $9 trillion — larger than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. That is what happens in the IMF's rosy scenario in which the coronavirus is contained quickly and the world swiftly resumes economic activity.

  • "The pandemic may not recede in second half of this year, leading to longer containment periods, worsening financial conditions and further breakdowns in global supply chains," Gopinath warned.
  • "In such cases, global growth will fall even further, by an additional 3% in 2020, and if the health crisis rolls over into 2021 it can reduce the level of global GDP by an additional 8% compared to the baseline."

Where it stands: The IMF is recommending coordinated fiscal stimulus, a moratorium on debt payment and debt restructurings, and additional financing and grants for the world's poorest countries.

  • Tobias Adrian, head of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, says the Fund already has received a record number of requests for lending and funding from developing economies, with more than half of the IMF's membership having now requested assistance.

What to watch: Finance ministers and central bank leaders from the G7 nations met again Tuesday and again announced no new coordinated measures to bolster the global economy at large.

  • That so-far-missing effort is exactly what the IMF says will be necessary to contain the economic crisis to its baseline projections.

Go deeper: Coronavirus could force the world into an unprecedented depression

Go deeper

Chicago releases video of fatal police shooting of 13-year-old boy

A small memorial is seen on April 15 in Chicago where 13-year-old Adam Toledo was shot and killed by a police officer in March. Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images

Chicago's independent police review board on Thursday released the body camera footage of an officer's fatal shooting of 13-year-old Adam Toledo on March 29.

The big picture: Tension continues to rise nationwide in response to police misconduct and racism. Thursday's footage release comes days after officer Kim Potter fatally shot Daunte Wright in a traffic stop near Minneapolis, where the trial of Derek Chauvin, a former police officer accused of murdering George Floyd, is ongoing.

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State AG candidate Jen Jordan talks Georgia's time under the microscope

Georgia has become the center of American politics, in an era wherein state issues and officials have taken on elevated national prominence.

Axios Re:Cap speaks with Georgia state Sen. Jen Jorden, a Democrat running for attorney general, about her state's time in the national spotlight, if she'd defend the voting law as AG and if Will Smith should have pulled his movie production from her state.

Migrants cite Mexican law as incentive for heading north

Monitored by a caretaker, young unaccompanied immigrants, ages 3-9, in a playpen at a Homeland Security holding facility in Donna, Texas, last month. Photo: Dario Lopez-Mills - Pool/Getty Images

A Mexican law against the detention of minors who are headed to the U.S. border may unintentionally be encouraging more attempts by children to cross over.

The state of play: Teenagers from Honduras told Reuters they decided to cross to the U.S. through Mexico because of the law, which gives them temporary protection from deportation, as they felt safer making the attempt.