AP file photo

A new study from Oliver Wyman, paid for by UnitedHealth Group, looks at how much the Affordable Care Act's health insurance tax will cost enrollees in 2018 and beyond. Insurers have long lobbied for the tax to be repealed, resulting in a one-year delay passed by Congress at the end of 2015.

How the estimated 2.6 percent premium increase in 2018 translates into dollars, per market:

  • $158 per person in the individual market
  • $185 per individual and $500 per family in the small employer market
  • $188 per individual and $540 per family in the large employer market
  • $245 per Medicare Advantage enrollee
  • $181 per Medicaid managed care enrollee

What we're watching: Premium increases are politically sensitive. When insurers say this tax just gets passed onto enrollees in the form of higher premiums, it gives them political leverage — potentially enough for another delay (or if insurers are very lucky, a repeal) of the tax attached to something Congress passes later this year.

Go deeper

Amy Coney Barrett's immediate impact

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

In her first week on the job, Amy Coney Barrett may be deciding which votes to count in the presidential election. By her third week, she’ll be deciding the fate of the Affordable Care Act.

Where it stands: The Senate votes on Barrett’s nomination tomorrow. If she’s confirmed, Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to swear her in at the Supreme Court within hours, an administration official tells Axios.

Texas Democrats beg Biden to spend now

Photo: Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

The Biden campaign is rebuffing persistent pleas from Texas Democrats to spend at least $10 million in the Lone Star state, several people familiar with the talks tell Axios.

Why it matters: If Texas — which has 38 electoral votes and is steadily getting more blue, but hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1976 — flipped to the Biden column, it would be game over. But the RealClearPolitics polling average stubbornly hovers at +2.6 for Trump — and Team Biden appears more focused on closer targets.

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Election night in Trumpworld

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Chris Carlson-Pool/Getty Images

A luxe election-night watch party at the Trump International Hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue is being planned for President Trump's donors, friends and advisers — but Trump's hand in it is minimal because he's "very superstitious" — people familiar with the plans tell Axios.

The big picture: This "mecca for all things MAGA," as one adviser described it, is one of three hubs where they say Trumpworld will watch returns. The others are the war room at campaign HQ in Rosslyn, Virginia, and the White House residence, where Trump and the first lady will gather close family and advisers before heading to the hotel later that night, the sources said.

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