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One of the biggest health care decisions Senate Republicans will have to make, if they take the House idea of per-capita caps for Medicaid, is what spending growth rate to use. Here's a look at how many states would be hit under four different growth rates, using data from the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.

Their analysis is here, but we'll just show you the numbers and let you figure it out. The point is, if you see orange or red, the state is losing federal money. And red = really bad.

Expand chart

The maps compare what would happen if Medicaid per capita spending was limited to:

The growth rates in the House bill.A looser measure, the medical inflation rate plus one percentage point.A tighter measure, the inflation rate for all urban consumers (favored by conservatives like Sen. Mike Lee).Historical Medicaid growth rates.What it means: This is what would have happened to these states in 2011 under the different kinds of caps. It's not a guarantee of what would happen in the future, since the state populations and health care costs are likely to change.The bottom line: Some states would be fine, because their spending wouldn't hit the caps — but the limits could hit anywhere from 23 to 45 states, depending on how tight the caps are.

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump to issue at least 100 pardons and commutations before leaving office

Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump plans to issue at least 100 pardons and commutations on his final full day in office Tuesday, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.

Why it matters: This is a continuation of the president's controversial December spree that saw full pardons granted to more than two dozen people — including former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, longtime associate Roger Stone and Charles Kushner, the father of Trump's senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

  • The pardons set to be issued before Trump exits the White House will be a mix of criminal justice ones and pardons for people connected to the president, the sources said.
  • CNN first reported this news.

Go deeper: Convicts turn to D.C. fixers for Trump pardons

Schumer's m(aj)ority checklist

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Capitalizing on the Georgia runoffs, achieving a 50-50 Senate and launching an impeachment trial are weighty to-dos for getting Joe Biden's administration up and running on Day One.

What to watch: A blend of ceremonies, hearings and legal timelines will come into play on Tuesday and Wednesday so Chuck Schumer can actually claim the Senate majority and propel the new president's agenda.

The dark new reality in Congress

National Guard troops keep watch at security fencing. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

This is how bad things are for elected officials and others working in a post-insurrection Congress:

  • Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) said she had a panic attack while grocery shopping back home.
  • Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said police may also have to be at his constituent meetings.
  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told a podcaster he brought a gun to his office on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 because he anticipated trouble with the proceedings that day.