An oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, on Jan. 8. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

A new note from the Rhodium Group helps explain why environmental groups and renewables trade associations are throwing their weight behind House Democrats' legislation to extend a suite of tax incentives.

The big picture: Compared to current policy, U.S. emissions would be 37 million to 99 million tons lower in 2030 if the wide-ranging draft bill unveiled recently were enacted, the research firm projects.

  • "That’s 16 to 19% below 2005 levels compared with a 15-17% reduction under current policy," they note.
  • That's still off track for meeting the Obama-era Paris Agreement pledge to reduce national emissions by 26%-28% by 2025.

By the numbers: Here are a couple key findings from the note by Rhodium, which conducts foundation-funded work on energy tax policy:

  • Installations of non-hydro renewable generating capacity, largely wind and solar, would be higher in 2025, and then the difference compared to the no-extension scenario widens a lot.
  • "In the latter half of the 2020s, the [legislation] can catalyze a surge in cumulative capacity additions to 354-491 [gigawatts] in 2030, an increase of 15-59 GW compared to 339-432 GW under current policy," they note.
  • On electric vehicles, expanded credits mean that up to 5.7 million more EVs would be sold between now and 2030.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

1 hour ago - World

China embraces hostage diplomacy

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Chinese government is threatening to detain foreign citizens unless their home governments do what Beijing demands. In some cases, China has already made good on those threats.

The big picture: This marks a potential evolution of China's "wolf warrior diplomacy" to outright rogue state behavior, putting it in the company of countries like North Korea and Iran, which have also engaged in hostage diplomacy.

Justice Department sues Google over alleged search monopoly

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The Justice Department and 11 states Tuesday filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google, accusing the company of using anticompetitive tactics to illegally monopolize the online search and search advertising markets.

Why it matters: The long-awaited suit is Washington's first major blow against the tech giants that many on both the right and left argue have grown too large and powerful. Still, this is just step one in what could be a lengthy and messy court battle.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Politics: Americans feel Trump's sickness makes him harder to trustFlorida breaks record for in-person early voting.
  2. Health: The next wave is gaining steam.
  3. Education: Schools haven't become hotspots.
  4. World: Ireland moving back into lockdown — Argentina becomes 5th country to report 1 million infections.