President Trump announced he will sign a bill to reopen the government until Feb. 15. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

According to the White House's projections, the government shutdown that ended Friday had already eroded the positive impact of tax reform and spending increases signed by Trump in 2017.

What they're saying: "Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Kevin Hassett recently said the shutdown reduces quarterly annualized economic growth by 0.13 percentage points for every week that it lasts. After more than four weeks, that’s the equivalent of a 0.6 percent reduction in the annualized growth rate," the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes.

  • "The deficit-financed nature of these bills provided significant short-term stimulus, though they will do little to boost GDP over the medium and long terms. CBO estimates suggest they will each increase GDP growth by 0.3 percent per year in 2018 and 2019."
  • "At best, some of the economic losses from the shutdown may be recovered."

Hassett asserted last week that "the second quarter would be humongous if the government reopens" and could regain much of its lost growth, even though government output remains lost for the quarter.

Why it matters: Much, but not all, of the growth would be recovered after the government reopens.

  • As one economic analyst explained via email, "The restaurant meals not eaten still represent a permanent loss (not to mention the spending by federal contractors who are not getting backpay)."
  • "Some but not all of the economic effects will bounce back — federal workers will make their missed mortgage/car payments, but they’re not going to go out to eat 10 times this week to make up for the times they didn’t go out last week."

Of note: Economists polled by Reuters estimate the shutdown, which started on Dec. 22, actually knocked 0.2% off of quarterly GDP growth every week, double the White House's estimate.

Go deeper: Stocks are bouncing back, but analysts are still spooked

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Updated 17 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 a.m. ET: 12,740,971 — Total deaths: 565,716 — Total recoveries — 7,022,846Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 a.m. ET: 3,247,782 — Total deaths: 134,815 — Total recoveries: 995,576 — Total tested: 39,553,395Map.
  3. Politics: Trump wears face mask in public for first time.
  4. Public health: Fauci hasn't briefed Trump on the coronavirus pandemic in at least two months — We're losing the war on the coronavirus.
  5. States: Louisiana governor issues face mask mandate.
  6. World: India reimposes lockdowns as coronavirus cases soar.
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Hundreds of thousands vote in Hong Kong's opposition primaries

Photo: Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images

Organizers say more than 500,000 Hong Kong residents have voted in primary elections held by pro-democracy opposition groups on Saturday and Sunday, despite fears of a government crackdown under Beijing's draconian new national security law, Reuters reports.

Why it matters: The primaries, which aren't part of the city's official political process, are intended to whittle down the field of pro-democracy candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote against pro-China ruling politicians in September's legislative elections.

Biden's doctrine: Erase Trump, re-embrace the world

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto, and Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Foreign policy will look drastically different if Joe Biden defeats President Trump in November, advisers tell Axios — starting with a Day One announcement that the U.S. is re-entering the Paris Climate Agreement and new global coordination of the coronavirus response.

The big picture: If Trump's presidency started the "America First" era of withdrawal from global alliances, Biden's team says his presidency would be the opposite: a re-engagement with the world and an effort to rebuild those alliances — fast.