Expand chart
Reproduced from IIF; Chart: Axios Visuals

Uncertainty over both global trade and the global economy is at its highest point in more than 20 years, the Institute of International Finance reports, citing the latest readings of the World Uncertainty Index.

Why it matters: "It is a striking exhibit," IIF deputy director Emre Tiftik tells Axios in an email. "Trade uncertainty is implicitly included in the global uncertainty. However, its weight in the global uncertainty is small. And one can conclude that the sharp rise in trade uncertainty is a major factor keeping global uncertainty at elevated levels."

  • What it means: The index tracks the frequency of the word “uncertainty” in the quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. The World Uncertainty Index has spiked after the 9/11 attack, SARS outbreak and following the second Gulf War, the Euro debt crisis, El Niño, European border crisis, U.K. Brexit vote and the 2016 U.S. election.

Go deeper: A synchronized global slowdown

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Health

Ex-FDA head: U.S. will "definitely" see 200,000 to 300,000 virus deaths in 2020

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on CBS News' "Face the Nation" that the coronavirus death toll in the U.S. will be "definitely" somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 by the end of 2020.

Why it matters: "Whether we're closer to 200,000 or closer to 300,000 depends on what we do now and how it evolves," Gottlieb warned on Sunday as the U.S. surpassed five million confirmed coronavirus cases.

Mnuchin says Trump executive orders were cleared by Justice Department

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted on "Fox News Sunday" that President Trump's executive orders on coronavirus aid were cleared by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, and said that Democrats are going to "have a lot of explaining to do" if they choose to challenge them in court.

Why it matters: Democrats and even some Republicans have criticized Trump's decision to circumvent Congress to extend unemployment benefits as executive overreach, given that the Constitution gives Congress power to appropriate spending.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11 a.m. ET: 19,680,042 — Total deaths: 727,777 — Total recoveries — 11,962,565Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11 a.m. ET: 5,002,523 — Total deaths: 162,455 — Total recoveries: 1,643,118 — Total tests: 61,080,587Map.
  3. Politics: Nancy Pelosi says states don't have the funds to comply with Trump's executive order on employment — Trump adviser Larry Kudlow says he regrets suggesting the benefits could only be extended by Congress.
  4. Public health: Fauci says chances are "not great" that COVID-19 vaccine will be 98% effective — Poll: 1 in 3 Americans would decline COVID-19 vaccine.
  5. Schools: Nine test positive at Georgia school where photo showing packed hallway went viral — How back-to-school is playing out in the South as coronavirus rages on — Princeton, Johns Hopkins, Howard to hold fall classes online.