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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Online shopping and the gig economy haven't just disrupted traditional brick-and-mortar business, they're disrupting the way U.S. job growth, wage data and inflation are tracked, asserts a new paper from the Dallas Federal Reserve.

What it means: There has been an increase in the number of workers in the gig economy who are either working as contractors or are self-employed, but report themselves as employed. These workers often have less bargaining power and lower wages than full-time employees.

Details: "Essentially, firms are able to hire contract or self-employed workers, who are not on their payrolls and not counted among the unemployed when not on the job," John V. Duca, a vice president in the research department at the Dallas Fed, says in the report. "As a result, the headline measure of unemployment may understate labor slack."

  • In essence, unemployment should be higher than it is because most gig economy workers should be counted as unemployed or underemployed, according to traditional metrics, but aren't. They also make less money, pushing down wage numbers. That is leading to unusually low readings in the data.

The big picture: Economists have long argued about just how much impact the gig economy has had on the persistently low wages in the U.S. and the change in the relationship between unemployment and inflation. Typically as unemployment falls, inflation rises, but that trend has been undermined in recent years, leading many to question the long-held economic principle of the Phillips Curve.

  • Last year, Anat Bracha and Mary A. Burke, senior research economists at the Boston Fed, found recent year-over-year wage growth had fallen short of predicted values by 0.5–1 percentage point.
  • They concluded that the gig economy had "an economically significant" impact on those lower wages.

Yes, but: "These shopping and employment behavior changes are still new enough that the data are insufficient for full statistical analysis," Duca says in the Dallas Fed report.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Nathan Bomey, author of Closer
19 mins ago - Economy & Business

Tesla delays Cybertruck until 2023

Tesla debuts the Cybertruck in Hawthorne, Calif., on Nov. 21, 2019. Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Tesla is at risk of falling behind on one of the most critical products in the American auto industry: pickups.

Why it matters: Pickups are the most profitable segment in the business and account for the first, second and third best-selling vehicles in the country. Without a serious pickup strategy, Tesla could miss out on a huge source of future income.

Defense taking steps to mitigate civilian harm after botched airstrikes

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks during a news conference at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia on Sept. 1, 2021. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a directive Thursday to improve the U.S. military's approach to civilian harm mitigation and response, calling it a "strategic and a moral imperative."

Why it matters: The Pentagon has faced criticism for years for amassing civilian casualties in its missions, especially in the Middle East. New York Times investigations have found systemic failures in efforts to prevent civilian deaths, as well as a cover-up of a 2019 airstrike that killed dozens of women and children in Syria.

3 hours ago - World

Mapped: The world's most and least corrupt countries

Expand chart
Data: Transparency International; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

The most corrupt governments in the world are in South Sudan, Syria and Somalia, according to Transparency International's annual index, while the "cleanest" are in Denmark, Finland and New Zealand.

  • Breaking it down: The U.S. is 27th, China 66th, India 85th, Brazil 96th and Russia 136th. Scroll over the map to see each country's ranking.