Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

An inlet filled with sea ice around Venable Ice Shelf, as seen during an Operation IceBridge flight on Nov. 16, 2017. Photo: NASA/Nathan Kurtz.

Two important studies on Antarctic ice shed light on how much progress scientists are making to predict the continent's future, and how little we really know.

The threat: The first study, published on Jan. 30 in Science Advances, used synthetic aperture radar from satellites and aircraft to determine the motion and structure of the rapidly melting Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica.

  • If there were a "Most Wanted List" for glaciers, Thwaites would be No. 1. Scientists are desperately trying to determine its fate.
  • Thwaites acts as a gateway to vast quantities of inland ice that rest on bedrock well below sea level.
  • If ocean waters were to access that inland ice, it could all melt, raising sea levels by at least 10 feet.

Geologist Richard Alley of Penn State University, who was not involved in the new study, called Thwaites a "geometric accident" that could lead to "large and rapid" ice loss if ice cliff instability that has happened elsewhere occurs there.

"Cliff retreat is not some strange and unexpected physical process; it is happening now in some places, has happened in the past, and is expected wherever sufficiently high temperatures occur in [the] ocean or air around ice flowing into the ocean."
— Alley told Axios via email

Details: The study reports the ebb and flow of salty, dense and relatively warm ocean waters had taken a gigantic bite out of the base of Thwaites, leaving a gap between the glacial floor and the bedrock below. Its dimensions are staggering.

  • The gap is 2.5 miles wide and 6 miles long, about 1,100 feet high and once contained about 14 billion tons of ice that have melted in the past few years.

What they're saying: "What we are seeing with high resolution data is the ocean eating away large portions of the ice, taking big bites at a time instead of eroding slowly," UC Irvine's Rignot, a co-author of the new study, told Axios.

A second study on West Antarctic glaciers including Thwaites was published on Wednesday in Nature, scrutinizing the alarming findings of another study published in 2016. That study showed that marine-terminating glaciers become inherently unstable when their calving front forms tall cliffs, upwards of 330 feet tall.

  • This marine ice-cliff instability causes such glaciers to rapidly break apart.
  • Observations of this physical process in Greenland's outlet glaciers have lent credence to this hypothesis.

The catch: The new research uses statistical techniques to find that past episodes of rapid sea level rise could've happened without this ice cliff instability.

  • The study suggests sea level rise will be lower than the numbers the 2016 study put forward, projecting only a 5% chance that the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise will top 15 inches by 2100.
  • "Our study demonstrates that the jury’s still out on marine ice-cliff instability," study lead author Tamsin Edwards, a geographer at Kings College in London, told Axios via email.

Rob DeConto of U-Mass Amherst, who co-authored the 2016 study, said the new study is useful but does not rule out the more alarming possibilities. "I don't really see ice fracture as an optional process that can be excluded from ice sheet models," DeConto told Axios. "Ice that flows into the ocean essentially always ends in a cliff regardless of the setting or spatial scale."

Richard Alley, a geoscientist at Penn State University who was not involved in either of the new studies, told Axios that marine ice-cliff instability poses a grave danger.

The bottom line: More work is needed for scientists to confidently winnow down the forecast range of sea-level rise. A new, multiyear U.S.-British research campaign focused on Thwaites should help.

Go deeper: Antarctica is losing ice 6 times faster than in the 1980s

Go deeper

Updated 9 mins ago - World

Trudeau's Liberals set to form minority government after Canada election win

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo: Jeff Vinnick/Getty Images

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government was reelected for a third term in Monday's parliamentary elections, but preliminary results show it failed to win a majority.

Why it matters: Trudeau has governed Canada with a minority of legislative support in parliament for the past two years. Last month, he called for an election two years earlier than scheduled in the hope of forming a majority government.

DOJ urges Supreme Court not to overturn Roe v Wade

Attorney General Merrick Garland during a Sept. 9 news conference at the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C. Photo: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Department of Justice sought permission Monday to present oral arguments when the Supreme Court hears a case challenging Mississippi's strict abortion law, as it called on justices to uphold Roe v. Wade.

Why it matters: The two briefs, filed by acting solicitor general Brian Fletcher, mark the latest attempt by President Biden's DOJ to "protect the legal right to an abortion," per the New York Times, which first reported the court filings.

3 hours ago - World

Reports: CIA director's team member reported Havana Syndrome symptoms

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director Bill Burns during a House Intelligence Committee hearing in April on Capitol Hill. Photo: Al Drago-Pool/Getty Images

A member of CIA director Bill Burns' team who traveled with him to India this month was treated for "symptoms consistent with Havana syndrome," CNN first reported Monday.

Why it matters: Current and former officials told the New York Times the incident signals a "possible escalation" in the mysterious neurological symptoms affecting as many as 200 Americans who've worked in overseas posts since 2016.