Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The Dow's 800-point fall grabbed headlines, but the real warning about the global economy's dire health comes from Europe. The German economy shrank in the second quarter, showing negative growth for the second time in 4 quarters.

Why it matters: Germany is being decimated by the global downturn in manufacturing and trade that has weighed extensively on major exporting countries. The downturn is likely coming for other economies as well, experts say.

  • "Germany is a more export-oriented economy than even China, so in some respects it’s the canary in the coal mine," Milton Ezrati, chief economist at Vested and former economics head at asset manager Lord Abbett, told Axios.
  • "When people say the U.S. economy can’t continue to grow when the world is in recession, what’s happening in Germany is indicative of the fact that the world is in recession," Ezrati said.

The big picture: Germany is the largest economy in Europe and the growth engine of the broader eurozone economy. As such, it was not the only economy to show its suffering Wednesday.

  • The British economy also shrank in the second quarter, as did with Sweden, and the eurozone broadly grew just 0.2%, half its total from the first quarter.
  • China, the world's No. 1 trading nation, also is showing signs of stress. Its industrial output reading for July was the weakest in 17 years, and it reported much weaker-than-expected investment and retail sales numbers.

Be smart: In a global economy, “U.S. economic developments affect the rest of the world, and the reverse is also true,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month.

Yes, but: Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, predicts the downturn could be delayed until 2021.

  • “The U.S. economy is clearly weakening and risks are piling up. Capex will inevitably slow further, but under the assumption that the trade war doesn’t escalate further, it will not weaken so much as to tip the U.S. into recession," Shah wrote in a note to clients.
  • "The Fed pivot in early 2019, global central bank easing, China stimulus and the reversal of its deleveraging process will support the global economy," Shah said.

Where it stands: The 2 levers that have saved the economy in previous times of crisis look exhausted.

  • Central bankers have clearly gotten the message and are cutting interest rates at a level not seen since the financial crisis. However, studies show monetary policy is not as powerful as it once was.
  • The world is already deeply in debt and democratic institutions are extremely polarized, making government spending more difficult as well.

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As the coronavirus poses risks and concerns for the youngest and oldest Americans, the generations in the middle are buckling under the increasing strain of having to take care of both.

Why it matters: People that make up the so-called sandwich generations are typically in their 30s, 40s and 50s, and in their prime working years. The increasing family and financial pressures on these workers means complications for employers, too.

Why Scranton matters again in 2020

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The hometown of Joe Biden and "The Office" is polishing its perennial status as a guidepost for the nation's political mood.

Driving the news: Biden returns to Scranton, Pa., today with a campaign stop just outside the city limits at a metalworking plant, where he'll deliver remarks on a plan to create jobs and "help America build back better."

Updated 21 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 5 a.m. ET: 12,051,561 — Total deaths: 549,735 — Total recoveries — 6,598,230Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 5 a.m. ET: 3,055,144 — Total deaths: 132,309 — Total recoveries: 953,420 — Total tested: 37,532,612Map.
  3. 2020: Houston mayor cancels Texas Republican convention.
  4. Public health: Deaths are rising in hotspots — Déjà vu sets in as testing issues rise and PPE dwindles.
  5. Travel: United warns employees it may furlough 45% of U.S. workforce How the pandemic changed mobility habits, by state.
  6. Education: New York City schools will not fully reopen in fallHarvard and MIT sue Trump administration over rule barring foreign students from online classes.