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Good morning and welcome back to week six of Generate! Has it been that long already? That went by fast. I'm already nostalgic for the early days, which might or might not explain the 80's-era image below. Let's move on with a reminder that you can sign-up for all the free Axios newsletters here. Ok let's dive in . . .

Bracing for oil’s ‘decade of disorder’

Giphy

Get ready: The latest edition of Platts' Capitol Crude podcast that's out this morning brings fresh warnings about future oil supplies from a couple people who know their stuff.

Uh-oh: Longtime analyst Adam Sieminski, the former head of the Energy Information Administration, is the latest expert to warn that even though the world is swimming in oil these days thanks to the shale boom, the global supply-demand equation could get way more precarious in coming years.

  • "I am thinking the decade of the 20s is going to be one of difficulties. That's why I called it the decade of disorder. We are not getting enough capital investment now. I don't know that shale is going to be able to do it all," said Sieminski, who was previously Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist.
  • Sieminksi, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the market will become more vulnerable to upheaval in one of the major producing countries taking supplies offline, such as Venezuela and the two million barrels per day it produces. "The possibility of things sort of very rapidly leading into shortages could give you that disorder that I was talking about," he said.

Supply shock warning: It doesn't get much rosier when Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays, looks into his crystal ball. He also warns that a supply crisis could happen in the next decade.

  • "The question is whether the market will see that eventuality and try and price it in beforehand," Cohen said. He argues that oil prices next year need to rise into mid-60 dollar range to spur adequate investment to meet what Barclays estimates will be annual demand growth in the 800,000-900,000 barrel-per-day range in coming years.

It’s not the tax, it’s the EPA.

Axios' Amy Harder asked an administration official about the prospects of a carbon tax, given that it has been rumored as a possible policy the White House could embrace. The official said the biggest reason it won't fly is because Democrats and environmental groups won't support eliminating EPA carbon regulations in exchange for a carbon tax.

"We know we wouldn't get what we needed," the official said. "We're not going to get EPA preemption."

The backstory: Some fossil-fuel companies have indicated they could support a carbon tax if all EPA regulations related to climate change were eliminated. That trade has long been considered a non-starter with most Democrats and environmental groups. It still is.

  • Line in the sand: Officials at both the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council, two of the most influential environmental groups in the U.S., both told Axios they wouldn't accept a carbon tax in lieu of EPA climate regulations.

Our Thought Bubble: Even if some congressional Republicans were to publicly support a carbon tax — a big if — this EPA issue would still be a sticking point. Former President Barack Obama had said for years EPA climate regulations should have been the stick to prod Congress to act on climate legislation. Now, it's the logjam preventing any climate compromise.

  • "We could spend time coming up with this grand compromise and then start working with the Hill and it would all collapse" over the EPA issue, the administration official said. "We wouldn't waste our time on it."

Obama's last climate adviser takes stock

Brian Deese was President Obama's top White House climate adviser for his final two years in office — a busy time that included the Paris agreement.

On-the-record: An extensive interview that Deese, now a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, gave to the U.K.-based Carbon Brief went up this morning. A few highlights from the 7,000-plus word chat.

Mixed emotions: Deese uses the words "damaging" and, internationally, "embarrassing" to describe Trump's moves to unwind Obama's climate policies. But... at several points he also argues that Trump has limited ability to alter the underlying expansion of low-carbon sources.

  • "I anticipate that they will have significantly less impact on those market trends than some of the more dire predictions suggest," he said.

Economic risk: A common theme in the interview is that the U.S. stands to lose out economically if it backs away from the Paris agreement, missing out on markets for tech including carbon capture and nuclear.

Strategy: Deese highlights a consistent trend in polling — there's support for carbon emissions limits but, at the same time, climate isn't a priority for voters.

  • "The question is, 'How do you overcome that?' Increasingly, the answer is connecting this to local issues that affect people in their lives today," he said, noting issues like western wildfires and frequent flooding in Florida and elsewhere.
The future: Deese points out that the world is not on track to hold the rise in global temperatures to under two degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels, the target of the Paris climate accord. But he believes there are still "real, credible" pathways to get there that don't require belief in "unicorns and fairytales."

Lightning round

We're all counting on you: Spring is here and that means summer is close and that means . . . oil traders are looking ahead to the U.S. summer driving season for Americans to help rebalance the market, Bloomberg reports.

  • "Hedge funds increased bets on higher West Texas Intermediate crude prices for the first time in six weeks, shrugging off rising U.S. supplies, as the coming driving season is expected to help ease the glut," they report.

Tesla: The EV and solar company is out with new images of its solar panels made by Panasonic, Electrek reports.

  • "Tesla told Electrek that once the new Panasonic module will go into production at Gigafactory 2 this summer, they will be used for all new residential projects going forward," they report.
The world in charts: Click here to see International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol's presentation to the April 9-10 G-7 energy minister's meeting in Rome. Want a concise snapshot of some big global trends? He's got you covered.

One cool thing

Karla Piper

Atlas Obscura looks at a cool relic of U.S. auto history: the colorful "motor agate," a byproduct of vehicle painting techniques from decades ago.

Beginning in the 1930s, spray painting techniques produced "large nuggets of excess paint, built up in layer after layer of color," which would harden right alongside with cars' coatings, their story notes.The globs were generally thrown away, but some of it is still around, and it's pretty cool looking (and makes nice jewelry).

Have a look at some of this "Fordite" above.

Thanks for reading! Today I'll be watching for anything good from the G-7 energy ministers meeting in Rome, where U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry is taking part. And please check out the Axios Stream for coverage of tech, healthcare, politics and more. I'll see you back here tomorrow, and as always, your tips and feedback are welcome at ben@axios.com.

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Trump trade adviser circulated docs linking manufacturing declines to abortion, spousal abuse

Peter Navarro. Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP

Peter Navarro, President Trump's top adviser on trade policy, circulated two diagrams internally claiming without evidence that decreased manufacturing is causing divorce, spousal abuse, increased abortion rates, increased drug use and more, according to the Washington Post, which obtained the documents.

Why it matters: President Trump and Navarro are aligned on trade, both contending that broad agreements like NAFTA are killing U.S. manufacturing. Two White House officials told the Post of concerns that "such unverified information could end up steering White House policy."

Go deeper: The art of the deal-breaker.

Featured

White House weighs in on Niger deaths, travel ban ruling

Trump at a Rose Garden press conference Tuesday afternoon. Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP

President Trump called the families of the four U.S. service members killed in action in Niger to offer condolences, Press Secretary Sanders said Tuesday evening. Trump was questioned about his public silence on the deaths yesterday, and falsely claimed his predecessors had declined to call families of those killed.

The White House also released a statement calling a Hawaii federal judge's block on Trump's revised travel ban a "dangerously flawed" decision. The Justice Department will "vigorously defend" the ban, the White House said.

Meanwhile, Trump sent out two afternoon Twitter attacks — one aimed at the media and the other aimed at Democrats in Congress.

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McCain says he'll support bipartisan health care plan

McCain speaks after he received the Liberty Medal from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Photo: Matt Rourke / AP

Sen. John McCain, whose opposition sunk an earlier Republican health care proposal, said Tuesday night that he looks "forward to supporting" the bipartisan plan put forward by Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander and Democratic Sen. Patty Murray. McCain added that he hopes the plan is "a sign of increased bipartisanship moving forward."

President Trump has called it a "good short term solution" and Chuck Schumer has said most Democrats are supportive. House conservatives, meanwhile, are more skeptical.

Go deeper: The details of the plan.

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Mueller's team interviewed Sean Spicer Monday

Spicer resigned as Press Secretary over the summer. Photo: Alex Brandon / AP

Former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer was interviewed Monday by Special Counsel Robert Mueller's team, Politico reports. Spicer fielded questions on the firing of James Comey and Trump's meetings with Russians, including his Oval Office meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, per Politico, in a meeting that lasted "much of the day."

The big picture: Mueller's investigation has reached people who were in the room when Trump made key decisions and statements that are now under scrutiny.

Go deeper: Spicer kept notebooks detailing goings-on at the White House; Mueller wants to speak with six Trump aides

Featured

Close Putin ally linked to Russia's fake news factory

Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / AP

The Russian "troll factory" that spread misinformation during the 2016 U.S. election, the Internet Research Agency (IRA), was funded by a close ally of Vladimir Putin's, according to a CNN report. The oligarch, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is nicknamed "Putin's Chef." His business, Concord Management and Consulting, had a contact drawn up with IRA in 2013 for 20 million rubles ($650,000).

Why it matters: This is further evidence that election meddling efforts reached into Putin's inner circle.

Featured

EPA loosens radiation safety standards

Photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

The Environmental Protection Agency has labeled levels of radiation 10x greater than those considered acceptable under the Obama administration as not harmful to people's health, according to a Bloomberg report. The EPA sets such regulations in case of nuclear meltdowns or other events that expose the public to radiation.

  • EPA spokesman Michael Abboud said: "EPA has not changed its standards regarding radiation exposure, and no protective guidelines were changed during this administration...The guidance was released on January 11, 2017 -- before the President was inaugurated." Bloomberg said an FAQ on the decision was released last month.
  • Jeff Ruch, executive director of the Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, told Bloomberg: "This appears to be another case of the Pruitt EPA proclaiming conclusions exactly opposite...of scientific research."
Featured

Facebook's head of experimental hardware is leaving

Regina Dugan is leaving Facebook. Photo: Photo by Brad Barket/Getty Images

The head of Facebook's skunkworks division Building 8 will leave the company. Regina Dugan said in a statement given to Recode that there's "is a tidal shift going on in Silicon Valley, and those of us in this industry have greater responsibilities than ever before" and that the "time feels right" to be "thoughtful about new ways to contribute in times of disruption." She said in a different post that she will be in charge of a "new endeavour."

Why it matters: Dugan arrived at Facebook last year to lead a division tasked with projects like building a way to type with your mind. Her departure comes as the company faces enormous pressure over its role in an increasingly unequal and divided society.

Featured

Magic Leap confirms $502 million fundraise

Magic Leap CEO Rony Abovitz
Photo by Brian Ach/Getty Images for Wired

Magic Leap, the secretive "mixed reality" startup, announced on Tuesday that it has raised $502 million in new venture capital funding led by Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek. This is the same round that Axios discussed last week, based on a Delaware regulatory filing (which authorized up to $1 billion in new shares at an increased valuation). The post-money valuation appears to be around $5 billion.

Bottom line: Investors clearly keep seeing something they like in Magic Leap, but consumers are still waiting for the Florida-based company's first product to debut.

Cap table: In addition to Temasek, other new Magic Leap investors include EDBI (Singapore), Grupo Globo (Brazil) and Janus Henderson Investors. Return backers include Alibaba Group, Fidelity Management and Research Company, Google, J.P. Morgan Investment Management, and T. Rowe Price.

Related: A pair of former Magic Leap engineers today announced that their new startup, which helps streamline the design process of 3D concepts for VR/AR apps, has raised $3.5 million in seed funding.

Featured

Federal judge blocks Trump's latest travel ban

An Iraqi family landed in the United States as a federal court blocked a travel ban in March. Photo: Felipe Dana / AP

A federal judge in Hawaii has blocked President Trump's third attempt at implementing a travel ban, which was set to go into effect Wednesday.

What's next: The administration is almost certain to appeal, meaning the revised ban could again reach the U.S. Supreme Court. But for now, the block means the administration cannot deny travelers from six of the eight countries officials said were either unable or unwilling to provide the information the U.S. requested for entry.

  • His quote: Judge Derrick K. Watson in Hawaii, who issued a temporary restraining order against the administration, said the latest version of the ban, "suffers from precisely the same maladies as its predecessor."
  • What's in question: As with the previous versions, the underlying decision relies on whether the ban is based on animosity toward Muslims.
  • What makes this ban different from the previous versions: The latest order was only passed after the U.S. underwent extensive negotiations with other countries for more information that would vet their citizens. The list of countries affected by the ban also now includes North Korea and Venezuela, two countries that are not Muslim-majority. The other countries include Syria, Libya, Iran, Yemen, Chad, and Somalia.
  • What critics are saying: Challengers argue the additions are largely "symbolic," per the Washington Post's Matt Zapotosky, who writes that the new order would only impact" certain government officials from Venezuela, and very few people actually travel to the U.S. from North Korea each year."
Featured

Trump's short list for Fed chair

Yellen at a hearing in Washington. Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP

President Trump is expected to name his pick to be chairman of the Federal Reserve before leaving on an Asia trip Nov. 3, Bloomberg reports. Here are the candidates:

  1. Current chair Janet Yellen
  2. Fed board member Jerome Powell
  3. National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn
  4. Former Fed member Kevin Warsh
  5. Stanford University economist John Taylor
Why it matters: "At issue for the next Fed chair, if Yellen isn't renominated, is ensuring the long expansion doesn't give way to a recession," Bloomberg writes.