Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Americans' political party preferences have swung sharply from a 2-point Republican advantage in January to an 11-point Democratic advantage in July, according to Gallup's monthly averages of telephone polls in 2020.

The big picture: The dramatic shift is more a product of fewer people identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning (down 8% since January) than gains among those who identify as Democratic or Democratic-leaning (up 5%).

By the numbers: 50% of U.S. adults identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared to 39% for the GOP.

  • 32% of Americans polled identified as Democrats, and another 18% said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party.
  • Meanwhile, 26% identified as Republicans, with another 13% saying they lean toward the GOP.

Zoom in: The month of June alone saw a 3% increase in people identifying as Democratic and Democratic-leaning, while the number of people identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning dropped by 5%.

  • That shift came amid mass protests following the death of George Floyd, which catapulted racial injustice to the forefront of the national conversation, and as the U.S. continued to struggle to contain the coronavirus.
  • Trump has also seen a significant decline in job approval ratings in recent months. 38% of Americans approved of the job he is doing in the latest Gallup poll.

The bottom line: Democrats last held an advantage of 10 points or more in January 2019 (51% to 39%), right after taking control of the House in a sweeping victory in the 2018 midterms.

Go deeper: Trump's summer shakeup shows he knows he's losing

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Axios-Ipsos poll: Voters of color worry about militias, arrests

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±2.6% margin of error; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Fears that armed militias, police or COVID-19 await them at the polls are disproportionately shaping how Americans of color think about in-person voting, according to an Ipsos poll for Axios.

Why it matters: Participation by voters of color could decide whether President Trump or Joe Biden wins, and whether Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

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  6. World: Spain and France exceed 1 million cases.

Early voting eclipses 2016 total with 12 days until election

People stand in line to vote early in Fairfax, Virginia in September. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Americans have cast more than 47.1 million ballots in the 2020 presidential election, surpassing the total early-vote count for 2016 with 12 days left until Election Day, according to a Washington Post analysis of voting data.

Why it matters: The election is already underway, as many states have expanded early and mail-in voting options because of the coronavirus pandemic.