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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

For all the energy the U.S. has spent determining whether Donald Trump broke any laws when he enthusiastically welcomed hacking efforts against his 2016 opponent, the nation has done little to prevent candidates from doing the same thing in 2020.

Why it matters: The election is only a year and a half away, and Russia's methods of election interference demonstrated some degree of success. If a candidate were hell-bent on benefitting from hacking undertaken by hostile actors, either foreign or domestic, we have put no new barriers in place to stop such efforts.

What they're saying: "If anything, I think the Trump campaign would be emboldened to do the exact same things again," said Paul Rosenzweig, a senior fellow at the conservative-leaning R Street Institute and former deputy assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Homeland Security.

  • "The only way this changes is if it starts meaning that a candidate goes to jail or doesn't win an election," he said.

Details: The Trump campaign has played coy about whether, presented with the exact same circumstances as 2016's hacking in 2020, it would behave the exact same way.

  • According to the Mueller report, the 2016 Trump campaign met with Russian agents at Trump Tower to obtain dirt on Hillary Clinton, coordinated with WikiLeaks on the release of hacked emails, and publicly requested Russia produce hacked copies of Clinton's State Department emails (Trump later said he was joking) before coordinating with Republican activists to do the same.
  • "There's nothing wrong with taking information from Russians," Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani said Sunday on CNN, and "any candidate in the whole world" would have done so.

The catch: All of this is still arguably legal.

  • A little nuance: Mueller says he decided not to bring charges over the Trump Tower meeting largely because the participants didn't break the law knowingly. Given the hoopla, that would be a tougher argument to make in 2020.
  • But Mueller also notes that the meeting wouldn't have broken laws unless it provided useful information (it didn't), and even then the case would be difficult to argue in court.

Democrats want an agreement with Republicans to not use hacked documents during campaigns.

  • On Monday, Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez wrote an open letter to his Republican counterpart pledging the DNC would not "weaponize stolen private data for political gain."
  • The letter is an attempt to bring the RNC to the negotiating table on the issue. Until the two discuss terms, that pledge has no teeth — there is no prescribed consequence if a Democrat used hacked materials.
  • Meanwhile, an RNC representative quoted chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on its stance for 2020: "Any breach of our political organizations — regardless of party — is an affront to all of us, and we should come together as Americans to prevent it from ever happening again."
  • That official did not respond to a follow up questions about the consequences for a candidate not complying.

The Trump campaign did not reply to requests for comment.

The bottom line, via Rosenzweig: "If you don’t spank a dog when it doodles on the rug, it will keep doodling on the rug."

Editor's note: This story originally misspelled Paul Rosenzweig's name and has been corrected.

Go deeper

Rideshare companies say driver shortage is pushing prices up

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

It's not just you: Uber and Lyft rides are more expensive, company executives said this week.

Why it matters: Demand for rideshare is roaring back as the economy starts to reopen, but the same can't be said for drivers on the apps. That means fewer cars on the road, causing a supply gap that's pushing up prices.

Pelosi slams GOP leadership's moves against Liz Cheney

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week condemned Republican efforts to oust Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) as House GOP conference chair.

Why it matters: A number of Democrats have spoken out against attempts to punish Cheney for her criticism of former President Trump, framing the discussion as one essential to the maintenance of American democracy.

What to watch in AMLO's meeting with Harris

Three Mexico national guardsmen stand in front of the metro overpass that collapsed onto a busy highway. Photo: Julián Lopez/ Eyepix Group/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Joint efforts to stem the increased number of migrants heading to the U.S. will likely be at the top of discussions when Vice President Kamala Harris and Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador hold their virtual meeting on Friday.

The big picture: The U.S. government has consistently asked its southern neighbor to prevent immigrants from reaching the border, mostly through threats like former President Trump’s talk of tariffs.

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