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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Some Trump-to-Biden swing voters are showing early signs of souring on President Biden despite his big win with a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package clearing the Senate.

Why it matters: Democrats are counting on Biden's brand of governance and handling of COVID-19 and the economy to save them in next year's midterm elections.

  • Every president's honeymoon ends eventually.
  • What to watch is whether these findings amount to an asterisk or reflect a growing trend that should concern the White House.

Driving the news: Two of the 13 men and women in the latest Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups, conducted online Tuesday night, said they'd vote for Donald Trump if they could do over their 2020 election ballot.

  • Three expressed reservations about Biden's policy achievements.
  • The participants live in swing states and voted for Trump in 2016, then Biden in 2020.
  • While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters in crucial states are thinking and talking about current events.

What they’re saying: Those who want more from Biden raised concerns about everything from security at the U.S.-Mexico border to their general perceptions about his lack of assertiveness to acknowledging they are confused by noise and disinformation.

  • "He’s not moving his policies like the way he said at the beginning,” said Shannon F. of Pennsylvania. “Trump got more done whenever he was in office.”
  • “My concern, I think, more now is trying to filter fact from rumor," said Ann B. from Arizona.

What we're watching: Most of the panel said they believe Trump’s influence is waning — even though 12 of the 13 said they still expect him to run again and 10 of the 13 voters say he's still setting the tone of the Republican Party

  • Ten of the 13 said Trump’s endorsements would not affect their own votes for candidates in next year's midterms.

The bottom line: “Former President Trump doesn’t hold much sway with the voters he won in 2016 and then lost in 2020," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups.

  • "Based upon what we heard this month, it’s unlikely he’ll ever win many of them back.”

Go deeper

John Frank, author of Denver
Oct 15, 2021 - Axios Denver

Colorado activist played big role in Donald Trump's "Big Lie"

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

A far-right activist who hosted a podcast went public with a fantastical claim just weeks ahead of the 2020 election.

Driving the news: Colorado’s Joe Oltmann says he listened to a phone call hosted by left-wing "antifa" activists in September 2020.

Biden: DOJ should prosecute those who defy Jan. 6 subpoenas

President Biden speaks with reporters at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, Connecticut. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden said Friday that the Justice Department should prosecute those who defy subpoenas from the Jan. 6 select committee.

Why it matters: The president's remarks come one day after Donald Trump ally Steve Bannon failed to show up for a deposition before the committee.

Ina Fried, author of Login
10 mins ago - Technology

Intel CEO sees making own chips as a matter of national security

Pat Gelsinger. Photo: Axios on HBO

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is putting the pressure on the U.S. government to help subsidize chip manufacturing, insisting the current reliance on plants in Taiwan and Korea as "geopolitically unstable."

Why it matters: There is bipartisan support for funding the domestic semiconductor industry, but Congress has yet to sign the check. The Senate has passed the CHIPS Act that includes $52 billion in semiconductor investment, but it has yet to pass the House.