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Photos: Jim Watson, Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Joe Biden has a lead over President Trump in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the last New York Times/Siena College poll before Tuesday's election.

Why it matters: Biden's apparent lead in a number of states, largely supported by voters who did not turn out in 2016, "appears to put him in a stronger position heading into Election Day than any presidential candidate since at least 2008," the Times' Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin write.

By the numbers: Biden's lead is within the margin of error in Florida. But the former vice president holds a significant lead in Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 23,000 votes — less than a percentage point.

  • Florida: Biden 47%-44% Trump
  • Arizona: Biden 49%-43% Trump
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 49%-43% Trump
  • Wisconsin: Biden 52%-41% Trump

The big picture: The new polling results add to Biden's lead in FiveThirtyEight's average of polls in the four battlegrounds.

  • In Florida, Biden's average lead increased from 1.7% to 1.8%.
  • In Arizona, Biden's average lead widened from 3.2% to 3.4%.
  • In Pennsylvania, Biden's 4.9% lead did not change.
  • In Wisconsin, Biden's average lead increased from 8.2% to 8.7%.

The bottom line: "Trump’s apparent weakness in many of the country’s largest electoral prizes leaves him with a narrow path to the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, short of a major upset or a systemic error in opinion polling surpassing even the missteps preceding the 2016 election," the Times writes.

Methodology: The poll of likely voters was conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 31. The margin of error is 3.2% in Wisconsin and Florida, 3% in Arizona, and 2.4% in Pennsylvania.

Go deeper

Longtime diplomat says Trump conspiracies hurt U.S. more than Russia, China

Burns during Senate testimony in 2015. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

A longtime diplomat and Joe Biden adviser tells Axios that the United States has lost international credibility as President Trump spreads conspiracies while challenging his losing election results.

Why it matters: Nicholas Burns, a Harvard professor who previously served presidents from both political parties as a former ambassador and undersecretary of state, says the president's baseless challenges have undercut the U.S. as a beacon of democracy and critical voice against governmental overreach in other nations.

Updated Nov 22, 2020 - Politics & Policy

GOP Sen. Pat Toomey: Trump has exhausted all plausible legal options

Sen. Pat Toomey during a Senate hearing in May. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) congratulated President-elect Joe Biden on his election win, saying in a statement, "President Trump has exhausted all plausible legal options to challenge the result of the presidential race in Pennsylvania."

Why it matters: Toomey made the announcement hours after a Republican judge in his home state dismissed a Trump campaign lawsuit that sought to block the certification of Pennsylvania's election results.

Nov 22, 2020 - Politics & Policy

GOP Sen. Kevin Cramer: Transition should start "tomorrow morning"

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said on "Meet the Press" on Sunday that it is past time to "cooperate with the transition" to President-elect Joe Biden, adding that he believes President Trump still has the right to continue fighting in court over election results.

Driving the news: Trump has refused to allow the transition process to begin as he has sought to discredit the election results in swing states across the country — baselessly alleging mass voter fraud.