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Photos: Jim Watson, Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Joe Biden has a lead over President Trump in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the last New York Times/Siena College poll before Tuesday's election.

Why it matters: Biden's apparent lead in a number of states, largely supported by voters who did not turn out in 2016, "appears to put him in a stronger position heading into Election Day than any presidential candidate since at least 2008," the Times' Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin write.

By the numbers: Biden's lead is within the margin of error in Florida. But the former vice president holds a significant lead in Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 23,000 votes — less than a percentage point.

  • Florida: Biden 47%-44% Trump
  • Arizona: Biden 49%-43% Trump
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 49%-43% Trump
  • Wisconsin: Biden 52%-41% Trump

The big picture: The new polling results add to Biden's lead in FiveThirtyEight's average of polls in the four battlegrounds.

  • In Florida, Biden's average lead increased from 1.7% to 1.8%.
  • In Arizona, Biden's average lead widened from 3.2% to 3.4%.
  • In Pennsylvania, Biden's 4.9% lead did not change.
  • In Wisconsin, Biden's average lead increased from 8.2% to 8.7%.

The bottom line: "Trump’s apparent weakness in many of the country’s largest electoral prizes leaves him with a narrow path to the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, short of a major upset or a systemic error in opinion polling surpassing even the missteps preceding the 2016 election," the Times writes.

Methodology: The poll of likely voters was conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 31. The margin of error is 3.2% in Wisconsin and Florida, 3% in Arizona, and 2.4% in Pennsylvania.

Go deeper

Jan 27, 2021 - Economy & Business

Wanted: New media bosses, everywhere

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Reuters, HuffPost and Wired are all looking for new editors. Soon, The New York Times will be too.

Why it matters: The new hires will reflect a new generation — one that's addicted to technology, demands accountability and expects diversity to be a priority.

3 hours ago - Health

Meta removes over 600 accounts linked to COVID disinformation effort by China

Facebook's corporate headquarters campus in Menlo Park, California. Photo: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Meta announced Wednesday it has removed over 600 Facebook and Instagram accounts linked to a Chinese influence operation that claimed the U.S. was pressuring the World Health Organization (WHO) to blame COVID on China.

Why it matters: Though Meta said the network was unsuccessful, it marks yet another COVID disinformation campaign instigated by China in an effort to discredit the U.S.

Stacey Abrams launches second campaign for Georgia governor

Photo: Eze Amos/Getty Images

Stacey Abrams, voting rights activist and former 2018 candidate for Georgia governor, is running for the position again in 2022. Abrams would be the first Black female governor in the country.

Why it matters: Abrams caught national attention in 2018 by narrowly losing an election to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in a state held firmly by the GOP for nearly two decades.