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AP file photo

The Congressional Budget Office has released its cost estimates for the final version of the House health care bill, nearly three weeks after the House passed it. The main points, and how it compares to the Affordable Care Act:

  • Savings: $119 billion.
  • Coverage: 23 million fewer insured in 2026.
  • Impact on premiums:Half the population (no state waivers): 4 percent lower in 2026.One third of the population (moderate regulation changes): 20 percent lower in 2026.One sixth of the population (full state waivers): Large variation between healthy and sick customers.

The big warning: Markets would become "unstable" in 2020 in states that get the full state waivers from ACA regulations on pricing and benefits. And in those states, people with pre-existing conditions "would ultimately be unable to purchase comprehensive nongroup health insurance at premiums comparable to those under current law, if they could purchase it at all."

The big takeaway: The last-minute changes to the bill didn't affect the cost or coverage estimates that much. Before those amendments, the bill would have saved $150 billion over 10 years, and 24 million fewer people would have had health coverage. But CBO is warning Congress that the latest changes — letting states opt out of two of the ACA's main insurance regulations — could ruin the insurance markets in those states even if they make insurance cheaper for healthy people.

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Biden's inflation danger

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal has economists and bullish market analysts revising their U.S. growth expectations higher, predicting a reflation of the economy in 2021 and possibly more booming returns for risk assets.

Yes, but: Others are warning that what's expected to be reflation could actually show up as inflation, a much less welcome phenomenon.

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CES was largely irrelevant this year

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Forced online by the pandemic and overshadowed by the attack on the Capitol, the 2021 edition of CES was mostly an afterthought as media's attention focused elsewhere.

Why it matters: The consumer electronics trade show is the cornerstone event for the Consumer Technology Association and Las Vegas has been the traditional early-January gathering place for the tech industry.

The FBI is tracing a digital trail to Capitol rioters

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Capitol rioters, eager to share proof of their efforts with other extremists online, have so far left a digital footprint of at least 140,000 images that is making it easier for federal law enforcement officials to capture and arrest them.

The big picture: Law enforcement's use of digital tracing isn't new, and has long been at the center of fierce battles over privacy and civil liberties. The Capitol siege is opening a fresh front in that debate.