Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Axios on your phone

Get breaking news and scoops on the go with the Axios app.

Download for free.

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The way Fed chair Jerome Powell is talking about inflation seems to be evolving.

Why it matters: The Fed has been employing a very stimulative monetary policy, which is helping boost job growth. But inflation has been running above its target.

  • Powell and his colleagues have argued for months that the forces currently boosting inflation have been "transitory."

Yes, but: As inflation rates rise by more than expected and for longer than expected, repeated references to "transitory" could hurt the Fed’s credibility.

  • Even Powell himself on Thursday told the Senate Banking Committee that: "I think we're experiencing a big uptick in inflation. Bigger than many expected. Bigger than certainly, I expected."

The intrigue: Powell’s most recent written statement referencing inflation made no reference to "transitory." He also never used the word during his lengthy Q&A with committee members.

  • The word "temporary" has come up, though.
  • "The problem with ‘transitory’ is that it suggested a very short period of elevated inflation," SGH Macro Advisors economist Tim Duy wrote in a note to clients. "'Temporary’ suggests the period of elevated inflation may be on the longer side."

The big picture: Semantics aside, Duy’s bigger point is that the Fed is communicating that it’s willing to tolerate inflation as long as unemployment remains high.

  • "Unless the Fed wants to revise the employment goal, it really has little choice but to lengthen the amount of time inflation can remain elevated without a policy response," Duy wrote.

Threat level: None of this is to say the Fed is turning a blind eye to inflation. Quite the opposite.

  • "We're trying to understand whether it's something that will pass through fairly quickly, or whether in fact, we need to act," Powell said of surprising inflation data.
  • Bespoke Investment Group macro strategist George Pearkes tells Axios it's significant that Powell is essentially saying "we're trying to figure that out."
  • "[If] they do decide ‘we need to tamp down inflation’ that's going to be a huge pivot and means we'll get [rate] hikes in 2022 for sure, with a taper starting in September and running much faster than it otherwise would."

The bottom line: The Fed is clearly willing to tolerate a lot of inflation if it means getting employment up. But there is a limit and not even the Fed seems to know where that is.

Go deeper

CEOs sound the alarm on inflation

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

CEOs are speaking up about what we’ve seen in the government data: inflation. And some of them warn elevated levels of inflation could persist.

Why it matters: Prices for goods and services have been rising at a historic pace, a phenomenon that many economists have characterized as transitory.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
Jul 15, 2021 - Economy & Business

Inflation is a little too much of a good thing

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The booming economy, with abundant help from both Congress and the Federal Reserve, has one downside: It's causing some prices to rise at a somewhat alarming level. Inflation is now well over 5%, and no one's entirely sure when it might start coming down.

Why it matters: If Democrats in Congress get their way, we're about to see some $4.5 trillion in new infrastructure spending, which can't help but add to inflationary pressures. Inflation alone, however — especially if it's temporary — is not so harmful as to be a reason not to pass such a bill.

1 hour ago - World

Biden: U.S. combat mission in Iraq will end this year

Biden returning to the White House on July 25. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

The United States' combat mission against the Islamic State in Iraq will be completed "by the end of the year," President Biden said Monday prior to a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Why it matters: Biden is close to shifting the U.S. military mission in Iraq to a fully advisory role more than 18 years after combat troops were sent to the country under the former President George W. Bush.

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!