Data: CME Group; Chart: Axios Visuals

Following President Trump's address Wednesday night, the market only moved further in its expectations that the Fed would dramatically cut rates, pricing in as much as a 95% likelihood that the central bank would move toward a reduction of 100 basis points to 0%-0.25% at its next meeting.

The big picture: It would be the Fed's largest rate cut since December 2008 when it last cut rates to zero, warning that "labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined."

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Updated 45 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 a.m. ET: 31,092,895 — Total deaths: 961,301— Total recoveries: 21,274,210Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 a.m. ET: 6,812,470 — Total deaths: 199,517 — Total recoveries: 2,590,671 — Total tests: 95,108,559Map.
  3. Health: CDC updates guidances to say coronavirus can be spread through the air Nursing homes are evicting unwanted patients.
  4. Politics: Testing czar on Trump's CDC contradictions: "Everybody is right."
  5. Education: College students give failing grade on return to campus.
  6. Business: Unemployment concerns are growing.
  7. World: "The Wake-Up Call" warns the West about the consequences of mishandling a pandemic.
Ben Geman, author of Generate
1 hour ago - Energy & Environment

The climate stakes of the Supreme Court fight

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death and the battle over her vacant Supreme Court seat have real implications for energy and climate policy.

Why it matters: If President Trump replaces her, the court will likely become more skeptical of regulations that claim expansive federal power to regulate carbon under existing law, and perhaps new climate statutes as well.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

The tech war between the U.S. and China escalates

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Economic tension between the U.S. and China continues to escalate but is shifting in focus — away from the tit-for-tat trade war and toward a more direct confrontation over the future of technology at the heart of the conflict between the world's two largest economies.

Why it matters: The battle between the U.S. and China was always about tech supremacy and the direct confrontation could result in an accelerated splintering of global supply chains and a significant reduction of international commerce.