Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

There's never been a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision quite like this, with the central bank facing public criticism from the president and a whipsawing stock market.

Why it matters: Market watchers agree that one of the greatest threats to the smoking economy is a misjudgment by the Fed on how to manage the record-breaking economic expansion. Trump's response to any rate hike is likely to be angry, losing the Fed's precious credibility among the president's supporters.

Later today, Jerome Powell will likely announce the fourth rate hike since he took over the Fed in February. The new target rate, 2.25–2.50%, will be the highest in a decade.

Flashback: Trump slammed Powell hours after the Fed announced a rate hike in September.

  • No other president has commented on monetary policy as much as Trump. Don't be surprised if there's a similar reaction from him this time.
  • Powell has taken pains to emphasize that his decisions are data-dependent. Trump, by contrast, would rather trust his gut on monetary policy, telling Powell yesterday to ignore "meaningless numbers" and "feel the market."

After Powell softened his rate hike stance last month, some economists expect a "dovish hike" — or a rate hike coupled with a more cautious tone about the economy, hinting that the Fed may hike rates fewer times in 2019 than previously indicated.

  • This is the best-case scenario for the stock market, which responds positively to a less aggressive Fed.

The odds: There is a roughly 31% chance that the Fed doesn't raise rates at all. That wouldn't necessarily be better news than a "dovish hike."

  • A rate pause would jeopardize the Fed‘s credibility. It would leave the central bank wide open for a victory lap from Trump and raise questions about whether the Fed has become politicized.
  • The move could also spook the markets. "Investors would assume the Fed had knowledge of some impending crisis about which they are unaware," says Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

The bottom line: No other Fed chairman has faced a challenge like the one Powell is facing. When Powell fields questions from reporters after the policy decision this afternoon, expect him to defend the Fed's political independence, maintain an upbeat (but not too upbeat) tone about the economy, and assure investors the Fed is not on a fixed path to hike interest rates even more.

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Hiroshima mayor warns of rise of nationalism on 75th anniversary

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (C) at the Memorial Cenotaph in the Peace Memorial Park during the 75th anniversary service for atomic bomb victims in Hiroshima, Japan, on Thursday. Photo: Philip Fong/AFP via Getty Images

Hiroshima's Mayor Kazumi Matsui on Thursday urged the international community to work together to defeat the coronavirus pandemic and warned against an increase in "self-centered nationalism," per the Washington Post.

Why it matters: He said at a remembrance service on the atomic bombing of the Japanese city that the 1918 flu pandemic killed millions as countries fighting in World War I were unable to overcome the threat together, per DPR. "A subsequent upsurge in nationalism led to World War II," he added. The U.S. bombing of Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945 and Nagasaki three days later contributed to the end of World War II, but tens of thousands of people died. At the service, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lamented nuclear weapons' "inhumanity," but he didn't mention Japan's wartime past, WashPost noted.

Go deeper: How new tech raises the risk of nuclear war

LeBron James on Trump NBA protest remarks: "We could care less"

The Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James kneels during the national anthem before the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, on Wednesday. Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

LeBron James responded on Wednesday night to President Trump's comments calling NBA players "disgraceful" for kneeling during the national anthem to protest racism and that he won't watch games because of the action.

The big picture: Trump has repeatedly criticized sports players for taking the knee since 2016. But James said during a news conference, "I really don’t think the basketball community are sad about losing his viewership, him viewing the game." November's elections marked "a big moment for us as Americans," he said. "If we continue to talk about, 'We want better, we want change,' we have an opportunity to do that," he added. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has said the league will "respect peaceful protest."

Go deeper: LeBron James forms voting rights group to inspire Black voters

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of midnight ET: 18,752,917 — Total deaths: 706,761— Total recoveries — 11,308,298Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of midnight ET: 4,821,296 — Total deaths: 158,249 — Total recoveries: 1,577,851 — Total tests: 58,920,975Map.
  3. Public health: Florida surpasses 500,000 confirmed casesFauci calls U.S. coronavirus testing delays "totally unacceptable."
  4. Business: America's next housing crisis.
  5. States: Virginia launches contact tracing app using specs from Apple and Google.
  6. Cities: L.A. mayor authorizes utilities shut-off at homes hosting large gatherings
  7. Politics: White House, Democrats remain "trillions of dollars apart" on stimulus talks.